KBNA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

86%

70%

40%

22%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.8¢Risks 60.75u

HRESNO 39.2¢Risks 39.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.25u · HRES −39.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:44+00:00	52.6%	99.7%	66.6%	29.5%	91.9%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	52.6%	99.7%	73.1%	29.5%	91.9%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	52.6%	99.7%	73.1%	29.5%	91.9%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	52.6%	99.7%	73.1%	29.5%	91.9%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	52.6%	99.7%	73.1%	29.5%	91.9%
2026-10-13T08:03:14+00:00	61.0%	99.7%	73.1%	30.3%	92.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	61.0%	99.7%	73.1%	30.3%	92.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	61.0%	99.7%	73.1%	30.3%	92.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	61.0%	99.7%	73.1%	30.3%	92.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	61.0%	99.8%	77.1%	30.3%	92.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	61.0%	99.8%	77.1%	30.3%	92.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	61.0%	99.8%	77.1%	30.3%	92.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	61.0%	99.8%	77.1%	30.3%	92.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	49.1%	99.8%	77.1%	30.3%	92.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	49.1%	99.8%	77.1%	30.3%	92.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	49.1%	99.8%	77.1%	30.3%	92.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	49.1%	99.8%	77.1%	30.3%	92.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	49.1%	99.8%	70.3%	30.3%	92.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	49.1%	99.8%	70.3%	30.3%	92.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	49.1%	99.8%	70.3%	30.3%	92.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	45.4%	99.8%	70.3%	30.3%	85.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	45.4%	99.8%	70.3%	30.3%	85.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	45.4%	99.8%	70.3%	30.3%	85.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:14+00:00	45.4%	99.8%	70.3%	30.3%	85.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	45.4%	99.8%	70.3%	21.7%	85.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	45.4%	99.8%	70.3%	21.7%	85.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	45.4%	99.8%	70.3%	21.7%	85.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	45.4%	99.8%	70.3%	21.7%	85.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	39.9%	99.8%	70.3%	21.7%	85.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	39.9%	99.8%	70.3%	21.7%	85.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	87.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	86%	80.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	78.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	76.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	75.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261016-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗