KBNA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

86%

70%

40%

22%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.8¢Risks 60.75u

HRESNO 39.2¢Risks 39.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.25u · HRES −39.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	67.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	67.6%	—	—	37.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	93.9%	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	97.9%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	69.4%	82.9%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	92.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	88.5%	81.1%	53.5%	—	59.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	66.3%	94.1%	95.4%	—	54.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	69.7%	66.3%	97.6%	—	52.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	85.5%	78.2%	67.0%	—	50.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	86.5%	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	72.1%	79.9%	67.8%	—	45.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	72.6%	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	85.4%	86.4%	57.8%	—	47.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	77.1%	82.8%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	88.1%	81.6%	66.1%	—	30.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	85.7%	80.4%	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	89.3%	88.4%	66.1%	—	31.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	88.6%	91.6%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	81.7%	92.6%	60.2%	—	25.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	87.9%	93.5%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	91.9%	96.2%	27.3%	—	44.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	94.0%	94.6%	24.9%	—	38.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	94.6%	95.8%	22.4%	89.5%	22.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	96.5%	93.4%	26.3%	—	19.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	97.4%	94.5%	27.6%	97.5%	36.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	98.1%	96.0%	19.1%	—	34.9%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	98.0%	97.0%	20.0%	91.1%	30.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	98.4%	96.8%	26.5%	—	33.8%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	97.9%	97.3%	22.2%	97.1%	38.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	19.2%	38.1%	13.6%	—	5.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.6%	1.1%	0.4%	1.6%	1.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	87.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	86%	80.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	78.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	76.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	75.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261016-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗