KBNA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

37%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.7¢Risks 49.70u

WN2NO 50.3¢Risks 50.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.30u · WN2 −50.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T07:51:09+00:00	6.1%	60.9%	40.3%	14.6%	55.7%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	6.1%	60.9%	40.3%	14.6%	55.7%
2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00	6.1%	60.9%	40.3%	14.6%	55.7%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	6.1%	60.9%	40.3%	14.6%	55.7%
2026-10-09T10:52:31+00:00	6.1%	60.9%	40.3%	14.6%	55.7%
2026-10-10T14:53:51+00:00	17.2%	60.4%	6.7%	71.5%	48.8%
2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00	17.2%	60.5%	6.7%	71.5%	48.8%
2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00	17.2%	60.5%	6.7%	71.5%	48.8%
2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00	17.2%	60.5%	7.0%	71.5%	48.8%
2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00	17.2%	60.5%	7.0%	71.5%	48.8%
2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00	17.2%	60.5%	7.0%	71.5%	48.8%
2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00	18.2%	60.5%	7.0%	71.5%	51.2%
2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00	18.2%	60.5%	7.0%	71.5%	51.2%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	18.2%	60.5%	7.0%	71.5%	51.2%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	18.2%	60.5%	7.0%	71.5%	51.2%
2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00	18.2%	60.5%	7.0%	31.3%	51.2%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	18.2%	60.5%	7.9%	31.3%	51.2%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	18.2%	60.5%	7.9%	31.3%	51.2%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	18.2%	60.5%	7.9%	31.3%	51.2%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	16.7%	60.5%	7.9%	31.3%	51.2%
2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00	16.7%	60.5%	7.9%	31.3%	51.2%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	16.7%	60.5%	7.9%	31.3%	51.2%
2026-10-11T03:44:49+00:00	16.7%	60.5%	7.9%	31.3%	51.2%
2026-10-11T04:30:44+00:00	16.7%	60.5%	7.9%	31.3%	51.2%
2026-10-11T05:16:02+00:00	16.7%	60.5%	5.1%	31.3%	51.2%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	16.7%	60.5%	5.1%	31.3%	51.2%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	16.7%	60.5%	5.1%	31.3%	51.2%
2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00	14.8%	60.5%	5.1%	30.1%	51.2%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	14.8%	60.5%	5.1%	30.1%	51.2%
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	14.8%	60.5%	5.1%	30.1%	51.2%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	14.8%	60.5%	5.1%	30.1%	51.2%
2026-10-11T10:33:45+00:00	14.8%	60.5%	5.1%	30.1%	51.2%
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	14.8%	89.3%	12.7%	30.1%	51.2%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	14.8%	89.3%	12.7%	30.1%	51.2%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	14.8%	89.3%	12.7%	30.1%	51.2%
2026-10-11T13:35:44+00:00	17.9%	89.3%	12.7%	30.1%	51.2%
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	17.9%	89.3%	12.8%	30.2%	51.1%
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	17.9%	89.3%	12.8%	30.2%	51.1%
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	17.9%	89.3%	12.8%	30.2%	51.1%
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	17.9%	89.3%	12.8%	30.2%	51.1%
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	17.9%	89.3%	10.4%	30.2%	51.1%
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	17.9%	89.3%	10.4%	30.2%	51.1%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	17.9%	89.3%	10.4%	30.2%	51.1%
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	16.4%	89.3%	10.4%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	16.4%	89.3%	10.4%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	16.4%	89.3%	10.4%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	16.4%	89.3%	10.4%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	16.4%	89.3%	10.4%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	16.4%	83.5%	14.5%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	16.4%	83.5%	14.5%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	16.4%	83.5%	14.5%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	16.9%	83.5%	14.5%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	16.9%	83.5%	14.5%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	16.9%	83.5%	14.5%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	16.9%	83.5%	14.5%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	16.9%	83.5%	14.5%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	16.9%	83.5%	15.6%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	16.9%	83.5%	15.6%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	16.9%	83.5%	15.6%	16.6%	45.9%
2026-10-12T07:48:09+00:00	14.3%	83.5%	15.6%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	14.3%	83.5%	15.6%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	14.3%	83.5%	15.6%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	14.3%	83.5%	15.6%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	14.3%	83.5%	15.6%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	14.3%	83.5%	12.9%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	14.3%	90.7%	12.9%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	14.3%	90.7%	12.9%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	12.0%	90.7%	12.9%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	12.0%	90.7%	13.0%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T15:26:54+00:00	12.0%	90.7%	13.0%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	12.0%	89.4%	13.0%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	12.0%	89.4%	14.2%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	12.0%	89.4%	14.2%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	12.0%	89.4%	14.2%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	12.0%	89.4%	14.2%	11.5%	53.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	10.0%	89.4%	14.2%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	10.0%	89.4%	14.2%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	10.0%	89.4%	14.2%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	10.0%	89.4%	14.2%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	10.0%	89.4%	11.9%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	10.0%	89.4%	11.9%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	10.0%	89.4%	11.9%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	10.0%	88.4%	11.9%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	10.8%	88.4%	11.9%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	10.8%	88.4%	11.9%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	10.8%	88.4%	11.9%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-13T04:15:45+00:00	10.8%	88.4%	11.9%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	10.8%	88.4%	16.1%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	10.8%	88.4%	16.1%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	10.8%	88.4%	16.1%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	10.8%	88.4%	16.1%	4.1%	55.8%
2026-10-13T08:03:14+00:00	13.3%	88.4%	16.1%	3.2%	48.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	13.3%	88.4%	16.1%	3.2%	48.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	13.3%	88.4%	16.1%	3.2%	48.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	13.3%	88.4%	16.1%	3.2%	48.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	13.3%	89.7%	15.0%	3.2%	48.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	13.3%	89.7%	15.0%	3.2%	48.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	13.3%	89.7%	15.0%	3.2%	48.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	13.3%	89.7%	15.0%	3.2%	48.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	7.8%	89.7%	15.0%	3.2%	48.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	7.8%	89.7%	15.0%	3.2%	48.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	7.8%	89.7%	15.0%	3.2%	48.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	7.8%	89.7%	15.0%	3.2%	48.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	7.8%	89.7%	10.6%	3.2%	48.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	7.8%	89.7%	10.6%	3.2%	48.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	7.8%	89.7%	10.6%	3.2%	48.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	6.5%	89.7%	10.6%	3.2%	32.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	6.5%	89.7%	10.6%	3.2%	32.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	6.5%	89.7%	10.6%	3.2%	32.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:14+00:00	6.5%	89.7%	10.6%	3.2%	32.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	6.5%	89.7%	10.6%	1.7%	32.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	6.5%	90.6%	10.6%	1.7%	32.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	6.5%	90.6%	10.6%	1.7%	32.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	6.5%	90.6%	10.6%	1.7%	32.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	4.9%	90.6%	10.6%	1.7%	32.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	4.9%	90.6%	10.6%	1.7%	32.5%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	4.9%	90.6%	10.6%	1.7%	32.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	4.9%	90.6%	10.6%	1.7%	32.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	4.9%	90.6%	10.6%	1.7%	32.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	4.9%	90.6%	10.6%	1.7%	32.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	4.9%	90.6%	10.6%	1.7%	32.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00	4.9%	90.6%	10.6%	1.7%	32.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	5.9%	90.6%	10.6%	1.7%	36.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	5.9%	90.6%	10.6%	1.7%	36.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	5.9%	90.6%	10.6%	1.7%	36.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	5.9%	90.6%	10.6%	1.7%	36.7%
2026-10-14T10:32:42+00:00	5.9%	90.6%	10.6%	4.2%	36.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:48+00:00	5.9%	97.2%	7.3%	4.2%	36.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	5.9%	97.2%	7.3%	4.2%	36.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	5.9%	97.2%	7.3%	4.2%	36.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	5.3%	97.2%	7.3%	4.2%	36.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	5.3%	97.1%	7.3%	4.2%	36.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:10+00:00	5.3%	97.0%	7.3%	4.2%	36.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	5.3%	97.0%	7.3%	4.2%	36.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	5.3%	97.0%	7.3%	4.2%	36.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	5.3%	97.0%	4.7%	4.2%	36.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	5.3%	97.0%	4.7%	4.2%	36.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	5.3%	97.0%	4.7%	4.2%	36.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	3.7%	97.0%	4.7%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	3.7%	97.0%	4.7%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	3.7%	97.0%	4.7%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	3.7%	97.0%	4.7%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	3.7%	97.0%	4.7%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	3.7%	97.2%	1.9%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	3.7%	97.2%	1.9%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	3.7%	97.2%	1.9%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	3.7%	97.2%	1.9%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	3.7%	97.2%	1.9%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	3.7%	97.2%	1.9%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	3.7%	97.2%	1.9%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	3.7%	97.2%	1.9%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	3.7%	97.2%	4.1%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	3.7%	97.2%	4.1%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00	3.7%	97.2%	4.1%	1.2%	41.1%
2026-10-15T07:49:33+00:00	4.5%	97.2%	4.1%	4.0%	38.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	4.5%	97.2%	4.1%	4.0%	38.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	4.5%	97.2%	4.1%	4.0%	38.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	4.5%	97.2%	4.1%	4.0%	38.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	4.5%	97.2%	4.1%	4.0%	38.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00	4.5%	97.2%	3.0%	4.0%	38.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	4.5%	98.3%	3.0%	4.0%	38.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:17+00:00	4.5%	98.3%	3.0%	4.0%	38.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	4.5%	98.0%	2.7%	4.0%	37.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	4.5%	98.0%	2.7%	4.0%	37.7%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	4.5%	98.3%	2.7%	4.0%	37.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	4.5%	98.3%	2.7%	4.0%	37.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	4.5%	98.3%	1.4%	4.0%	37.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	4.5%	98.3%	1.4%	4.0%	37.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	4.5%	98.3%	1.4%	4.0%	37.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	4.5%	98.3%	1.4%	4.0%	37.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	4.3%	98.3%	1.4%	2.6%	36.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	4.3%	98.3%	1.4%	2.6%	36.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	4.3%	98.3%	1.4%	2.6%	36.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	4.3%	98.3%	1.4%	2.6%	36.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	4.3%	98.5%	0.9%	2.6%	36.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	4.3%	98.5%	0.9%	2.6%	36.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	4.3%	98.5%	0.9%	2.6%	36.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	4.1%	98.5%	0.9%	2.6%	36.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	4.1%	98.5%	0.9%	2.6%	36.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	4.1%	98.5%	0.9%	2.6%	36.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	4.1%	98.5%	0.9%	2.6%	36.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	89.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	37%	81.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	75.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	75.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	75.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261016-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗