KBNA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

37%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.7¢Risks 49.70u

WN2NO 50.3¢Risks 50.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.30u · WN2 −50.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	33.5%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	72.5%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	86.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	85.6%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	30.6%	47.3%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	55.6%	43.0%	16.6%	—	20.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	24.9%	67.7%	72.2%	—	16.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	26.4%	23.4%	79.5%	—	13.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	44.4%	33.7%	22.4%	—	11.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	45.1%	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	25.1%	33.8%	21.3%	—	8.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	24.6%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	39.6%	41.3%	13.1%	—	8.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	27.1%	34.2%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	41.8%	31.4%	16.6%	—	2.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	36.1%	28.4%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	41.3%	39.4%	14.7%	—	2.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	38.2%	45.0%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	25.9%	45.9%	9.8%	—	1.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	33.5%	46.8%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	40.3%	55.5%	1.2%	—	3.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	44.4%	46.6%	0.9%	—	2.4%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	44.2%	48.8%	0.6%	31.0%	0.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	50.0%	38.1%	0.7%	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	52.5%	38.9%	0.7%	53.7%	1.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	55.1%	42.3%	0.2%	—	1.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	51.3%	44.6%	0.2%	25.1%	0.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	51.4%	40.3%	0.3%	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	44.2%	40.0%	0.2%	38.6%	0.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	89.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	37%	81.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	75.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	75.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	75.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261016-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗