KBNA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

68%

62%

52%

30%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.9¢Risks 59.85u

ICONNO 40.1¢Risks 40.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.15u · ICON −40.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	86.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	99.6%	—	—	85.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	99.9%	—	—	84.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	62.4%	—	—	88.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	78.3%	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	99.4%	93.8%	—	—	89.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	37.6%	67.7%	91.3%	—	87.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	55.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	42.7%	96.1%	—	72.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	42.4%	22.2%	82.6%	—	64.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	55.6%	61.0%	41.3%	—	66.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	31.2%	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	90.3%	63.9%	55.0%	—	55.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	64.2%	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	67.8%	70.1%	29.1%	—	49.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	74.3%	82.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	71.0%	85.6%	22.3%	—	37.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	63.0%	86.3%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	54.9%	84.1%	30.4%	—	37.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	58.9%	77.4%	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	53.1%	68.8%	30.3%	—	30.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	55.3%	56.3%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	65.9%	48.9%	9.0%	5.6%	28.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	46.6%	53.4%	0.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	47.7%	51.2%	12.7%	—	27.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	38.1%	56.0%	13.9%	—	0.9%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	42.6%	48.8%	17.4%	22.7%	22.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	44.9%	44.9%	16.6%	—	20.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	42.0%	51.3%	16.5%	30.7%	26.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	45.8%	51.4%	20.1%	—	23.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	44.2%	57.2%	22.2%	45.7%	21.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	35.2%	61.9%	29.8%	—	15.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	18.1%	68.3%	23.8%	60.9%	11.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	30.9%	66.1%	46.7%	—	30.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	65.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	63.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	62.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	61.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	30%	59.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗