KBNA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

68%

62%

52%

30%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.9¢Risks 59.85u

ICONNO 40.1¢Risks 40.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.15u · ICON −40.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	69.6%	88.5%	57.1%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	69.6%	88.5%	57.1%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	69.6%	88.5%	60.5%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	69.6%	88.5%	60.5%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00	69.6%	88.5%	60.5%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-15T07:49:33+00:00	66.2%	88.5%	60.5%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	66.2%	88.5%	60.5%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	66.2%	88.5%	60.5%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	66.2%	88.5%	60.5%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	66.2%	88.5%	60.5%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00	66.2%	88.5%	56.4%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	66.2%	89.0%	56.4%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:17+00:00	66.2%	89.0%	56.4%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	68.0%	88.4%	56.4%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	68.0%	88.4%	56.4%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	68.0%	89.4%	56.4%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	68.0%	89.4%	56.4%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	68.0%	89.4%	57.7%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	68.0%	89.4%	57.7%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	68.0%	89.4%	57.7%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	68.0%	89.4%	57.7%	46.1%	63.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	69.7%	89.4%	57.7%	49.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	69.7%	89.4%	57.7%	49.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	69.7%	89.4%	57.7%	49.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	69.7%	89.4%	57.7%	49.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	69.7%	91.4%	61.4%	49.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	69.7%	91.4%	61.4%	49.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	69.7%	91.4%	61.4%	49.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	68.0%	91.4%	61.4%	49.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	68.0%	91.4%	61.4%	49.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	68.0%	91.4%	61.4%	49.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	68.0%	91.4%	61.4%	49.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	68.0%	91.4%	61.4%	49.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	68.0%	91.4%	56.4%	49.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	68.0%	91.4%	56.4%	49.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	68.0%	91.4%	56.4%	49.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	69.3%	91.4%	56.4%	49.0%	29.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	69.3%	91.4%	56.4%	49.0%	29.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	69.3%	91.4%	56.4%	49.0%	29.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	69.3%	91.4%	56.4%	49.0%	29.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	69.3%	91.4%	56.4%	49.0%	29.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:00	69.3%	86.7%	51.4%	49.0%	29.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	69.3%	86.7%	51.4%	49.0%	29.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	69.3%	86.7%	51.4%	49.0%	29.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:22+00:00	67.5%	86.7%	51.4%	42.5%	29.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	67.6%	86.6%	51.4%	42.5%	29.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:26+00:00	67.6%	87.2%	51.4%	42.5%	29.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	67.6%	87.3%	51.4%	42.5%	29.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	67.6%	87.3%	51.4%	42.5%	29.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	67.6%	87.3%	50.0%	42.5%	29.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	67.6%	87.3%	50.0%	42.5%	29.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	67.6%	87.3%	50.0%	42.5%	29.5%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	70.3%	87.3%	50.0%	42.5%	29.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:24+00:00	70.3%	87.3%	50.0%	42.5%	29.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	70.3%	87.3%	50.0%	42.5%	29.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	70.3%	87.3%	50.0%	42.5%	29.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	70.3%	87.3%	50.0%	52.1%	29.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	70.3%	90.2%	56.8%	52.1%	29.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:24+00:00	70.3%	90.2%	56.8%	52.1%	29.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	70.3%	90.2%	56.8%	52.1%	29.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	68.5%	90.2%	56.8%	52.1%	29.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	68.5%	90.2%	56.8%	52.1%	29.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	68.5%	90.2%	56.8%	52.1%	29.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	68.5%	90.2%	56.8%	52.1%	29.5%
2026-10-17T04:41:34+00:00	68.5%	90.2%	56.8%	52.1%	29.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	68.5%	90.2%	62.1%	52.1%	29.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	68.5%	90.2%	62.1%	52.1%	29.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	68.5%	90.2%	62.1%	52.1%	29.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	65.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	63.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	62.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	61.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	30%	59.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗