KBNA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

52%

40%

39%

34%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 56.8¢Risks 56.80u

WN2NO 43.2¢Risks 43.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.20u · WN2 −43.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	99.0%	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	99.6%	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	50.0%	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	67.6%	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	98.5%	88.6%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	25.2%	54.2%	84.2%	—	78.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	29.1%	91.8%	—	58.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	28.3%	12.5%	71.1%	—	49.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	39.7%	45.2%	26.8%	—	50.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	18.4%	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	81.0%	47.5%	38.5%	—	39.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	47.4%	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	50.9%	53.5%	16.1%	—	32.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	58.0%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	53.7%	72.6%	11.0%	—	21.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	44.3%	73.2%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	35.7%	69.6%	15.9%	—	21.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	39.1%	59.9%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	33.0%	49.0%	15.1%	—	15.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	34.5%	35.5%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	44.5%	28.2%	2.9%	1.6%	13.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	25.8%	31.5%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	26.0%	28.9%	4.2%	—	11.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	18.3%	32.5%	4.5%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	20.8%	25.6%	5.9%	8.5%	8.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	21.9%	21.9%	5.3%	—	6.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	19.1%	26.2%	5.0%	12.0%	9.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	21.1%	25.3%	6.2%	—	7.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	19.1%	29.3%	6.8%	20.2%	6.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	12.8%	32.5%	9.9%	—	3.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	4.4%	37.6%	6.6%	30.3%	2.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.2%	33.9%	18.1%	—	9.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	68.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	63.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	63.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	62.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	62.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	62.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261017-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗