KBNA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

52%

40%

39%

34%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 56.8¢Risks 56.80u

WN2NO 43.2¢Risks 43.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.20u · WN2 −43.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	78.0%	88.2%	66.2%	76.3%	52.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	78.0%	88.2%	66.2%	76.3%	52.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	78.0%	88.2%	67.8%	76.3%	52.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	78.0%	88.2%	67.8%	76.3%	52.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	78.0%	88.2%	67.8%	76.3%	52.8%
2026-10-12T07:48:09+00:00	71.6%	88.2%	67.8%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	71.6%	88.2%	67.8%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	71.6%	88.2%	67.8%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	71.6%	88.2%	67.8%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	71.6%	88.2%	67.8%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	71.6%	88.2%	74.7%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	71.6%	95.2%	74.7%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	71.6%	95.2%	74.7%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	54.1%	95.2%	74.7%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	54.1%	95.0%	74.6%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T15:26:54+00:00	54.1%	95.0%	74.6%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	54.1%	93.1%	74.6%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	54.1%	93.1%	59.7%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	54.1%	93.1%	59.7%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	54.1%	93.1%	59.7%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	54.1%	93.1%	59.7%	66.8%	58.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	57.3%	93.1%	59.7%	48.6%	87.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	57.3%	93.1%	59.7%	48.6%	87.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	57.3%	93.1%	59.7%	48.6%	87.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	57.3%	93.1%	59.7%	48.6%	87.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	57.3%	93.1%	65.3%	48.6%	87.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	57.3%	93.1%	65.3%	48.6%	87.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	57.3%	93.1%	65.3%	48.6%	87.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	57.3%	91.8%	65.3%	48.6%	87.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	53.2%	91.8%	65.3%	48.6%	87.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	53.2%	91.8%	65.3%	48.6%	87.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	53.2%	91.8%	65.3%	48.6%	87.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	50.0%	85.3%	46.8%	44.4%	66.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	50.0%	85.3%	46.8%	44.4%	66.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	50.0%	85.3%	46.8%	44.4%	66.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	50.0%	85.3%	46.8%	44.4%	66.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	50.0%	85.3%	46.8%	44.4%	66.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00	50.0%	85.3%	46.8%	44.4%	66.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	50.9%	85.3%	46.8%	44.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	50.9%	85.3%	46.8%	44.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	50.9%	85.3%	46.8%	44.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	50.9%	85.3%	46.8%	44.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:42+00:00	50.9%	85.3%	46.8%	46.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:48+00:00	50.9%	77.5%	40.6%	46.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	50.9%	77.5%	40.6%	46.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	50.9%	77.5%	40.6%	46.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	56.5%	77.5%	40.6%	46.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	56.5%	77.4%	40.6%	46.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:10+00:00	56.5%	77.5%	40.6%	46.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	56.5%	77.5%	40.6%	46.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	56.5%	77.5%	40.6%	46.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	56.5%	77.5%	41.8%	46.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	56.5%	77.5%	41.8%	46.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	56.5%	77.5%	41.8%	46.4%	42.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	53.7%	77.5%	41.8%	38.6%	40.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	53.7%	77.5%	41.8%	38.6%	40.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	53.7%	77.5%	41.8%	38.6%	40.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	53.7%	77.5%	41.8%	38.6%	40.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	53.7%	77.5%	41.8%	38.6%	40.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	53.7%	79.7%	33.9%	38.6%	40.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	53.7%	79.7%	33.9%	38.6%	40.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	53.7%	79.7%	33.9%	38.6%	40.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	51.9%	79.7%	33.9%	38.6%	40.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	51.9%	79.7%	33.9%	38.6%	40.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	51.9%	79.7%	33.9%	38.6%	40.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	68.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	63.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	63.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	62.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	62.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	62.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261017-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗