KBNA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

49%

33%

11%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 43.2¢Risks 43.25u

WN2NO 56.8¢Risks 56.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +56.75u · WN2 −56.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	94.5%	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	97.3%	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	21.6%	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	36.0%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	90.7%	63.9%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	6.0%	21.9%	54.9%	—	45.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	7.1%	68.3%	—	24.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	6.3%	1.8%	34.4%	—	16.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	10.4%	13.1%	5.3%	—	16.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	2.7%	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	43.4%	13.4%	9.0%	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	12.8%	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	14.1%	15.6%	1.8%	—	5.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	17.8%	25.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	14.4%	28.9%	0.9%	—	2.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	9.2%	28.4%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	5.6%	24.0%	1.3%	—	2.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	6.3%	15.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	4.2%	9.4%	1.0%	—	1.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.2%	4.5%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	6.6%	2.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.9%	2.9%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.8%	2.2%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.8%	2.5%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.9%	1.3%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	0.8%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	1.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	0.8%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	0.9%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	74.2°F	7.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	68.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	39%	66.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
ICON	33%	64.2°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	62.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	62.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261017-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗