KBNA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST—Time unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

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Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	92.7%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	96.2%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	17.2%	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	30.1%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	87.5%	57.4%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	4.2%	17.1%	47.9%	—	38.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	4.9%	61.6%	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	4.2%	1.1%	27.7%	—	12.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	7.2%	9.3%	3.4%	—	11.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	1.7%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	35.3%	9.3%	6.1%	—	6.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	8.8%	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	9.7%	10.9%	1.1%	—	3.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	12.5%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	9.8%	21.6%	0.4%	—	1.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	5.9%	21.0%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.4%	17.1%	0.7%	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	3.8%	10.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.4%	5.8%	0.5%	—	0.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.3%	2.5%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.8%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.9%	1.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.8%	1.1%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	1.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	0.6%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261017-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 70°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗