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KBNA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
85%
HRES
56%
ICON
30%
WN2
13%
AIFS
9%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 47.1¢Risks 47.10u
VS
AIFSNO 52.9¢Risks 52.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.90u · AIFS −52.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.4% · 2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.2% · 2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00IFS HRES: 56.3% · 2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:0010-10 22:2710-11 00:4310-11 02:59
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:008.6%84.7%12.4%56.3%29.5%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:008.6%85.0%13.2%56.3%29.5%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:008.6%85.0%13.2%56.3%29.5%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:008.6%85.0%13.2%56.3%29.5%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:009.2%85.0%13.2%56.3%29.5%
2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:009.2%85.0%13.2%56.3%29.5%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:009.2%85.0%13.2%56.3%29.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble85%77.8°F8.0°F2026-10-10 00:00Pending
IFS HRES56%70.5°F6.3°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
National Blend52%70.0°F9.4°F2026-10-10 06:00Pending
ICON30%64.2°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 213%64.0°F4.9°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending
AIFS Single9%62.1°F5.6°F2026-10-10 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261017-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 70°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗