KBNA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≤ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

37%

26%

23%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 32.9¢Risks 32.85u

EPSNO 67.2¢Risks 67.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +67.15u · EPS −67.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.3%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	31.8%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	17.2%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	78.7%	0.4%	4.3%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	55.6%	26.3%	6.3%	—	9.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	50.0%	2.6%	—	22.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	50.0%	71.7%	12.9%	—	28.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	36.7%	31.6%	50.8%	—	26.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	61.3%	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	6.6%	28.6%	36.9%	—	36.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	28.1%	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	24.8%	22.8%	62.9%	—	42.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	19.0%	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	21.6%	9.8%	70.3%	—	53.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	28.4%	9.2%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	35.7%	10.7%	60.6%	—	52.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	31.7%	15.8%	—	—	92.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	36.9%	22.7%	60.2%	—	60.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	34.5%	33.5%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	24.7%	40.3%	85.7%	90.6%	61.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	42.2%	35.7%	98.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	40.8%	37.4%	80.1%	—	62.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	50.0%	32.5%	78.4%	—	98.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	45.0%	38.9%	73.4%	66.9%	66.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	42.3%	42.3%	74.1%	—	69.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.9%	44.6%	35.6%	73.9%	56.7%	61.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	40.3%	35.0%	68.8%	—	65.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	41.4%	29.3%	65.5%	40.0%	66.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	50.0%	24.8%	56.0%	—	74.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	69.7%	19.2%	62.4%	25.0%	79.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	53.3%	20.3%	37.0%	—	53.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	60%	59.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	61.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	62.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	24%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	63.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	65.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 60°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261017-TMAX-LE60
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 60°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗