KBNA / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≤ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

37%

26%

23%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 32.9¢Risks 32.85u

EPSNO 67.2¢Risks 67.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +67.15u · EPS −67.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:14+00:00	29.4%	2.7%	15.2%	24.8%	16.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	29.4%	2.7%	15.2%	24.8%	16.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	29.4%	2.7%	15.2%	24.8%	16.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	29.4%	2.7%	15.2%	24.8%	16.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	29.4%	4.5%	25.1%	24.8%	16.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	29.4%	4.5%	25.1%	24.8%	16.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	29.4%	4.5%	25.1%	24.8%	16.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	29.4%	4.5%	25.1%	24.8%	16.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	29.3%	4.7%	25.1%	24.8%	16.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	29.3%	5.1%	25.1%	24.8%	16.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	29.3%	5.1%	25.1%	24.8%	16.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	29.3%	5.1%	25.1%	24.8%	16.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	29.3%	5.1%	24.2%	24.8%	16.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	29.3%	5.1%	24.2%	24.8%	16.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	29.3%	5.1%	24.2%	24.8%	16.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	25.7%	5.1%	24.2%	24.8%	15.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	25.7%	5.1%	24.2%	24.8%	15.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	25.7%	5.1%	24.2%	24.8%	15.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:14+00:00	25.7%	5.1%	24.2%	24.8%	15.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	25.7%	5.1%	24.2%	32.3%	15.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	25.7%	3.6%	23.4%	32.3%	15.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	25.7%	3.6%	23.4%	32.3%	15.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	25.7%	3.6%	23.4%	32.3%	15.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	25.7%	3.6%	23.4%	32.3%	15.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	25.7%	3.6%	23.4%	32.3%	15.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	25.7%	3.6%	23.4%	32.3%	15.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	25.7%	3.6%	23.4%	32.3%	15.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	25.7%	3.6%	23.4%	32.3%	15.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	25.7%	3.6%	23.4%	32.3%	15.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	25.7%	3.6%	23.4%	32.3%	15.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00	25.7%	3.6%	23.4%	32.3%	15.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	23.5%	3.6%	23.4%	32.3%	29.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	23.5%	3.6%	23.4%	32.3%	29.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	23.5%	3.6%	23.4%	32.3%	29.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	23.5%	3.6%	23.4%	32.3%	29.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:42+00:00	23.5%	3.6%	23.4%	28.0%	29.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:48+00:00	23.5%	9.6%	25.7%	28.0%	29.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	23.5%	9.6%	25.7%	28.0%	29.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	23.5%	9.6%	25.7%	28.0%	29.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	19.5%	9.6%	25.7%	28.0%	29.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	19.4%	9.7%	25.7%	28.0%	29.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:10+00:00	19.4%	9.6%	25.7%	28.0%	29.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	19.4%	9.6%	25.7%	28.0%	29.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	19.4%	9.6%	25.7%	28.0%	29.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	19.4%	9.6%	24.7%	28.0%	29.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	19.4%	9.6%	24.7%	28.0%	29.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	19.4%	9.6%	24.7%	28.0%	29.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	21.4%	9.6%	24.7%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	21.4%	9.6%	24.7%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	21.4%	9.6%	24.7%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	21.4%	9.6%	24.7%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	21.4%	9.6%	24.7%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	21.4%	8.3%	31.7%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	21.4%	8.3%	31.7%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	21.4%	8.3%	31.7%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	22.8%	8.3%	31.7%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	22.8%	8.3%	31.7%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	22.8%	8.3%	31.7%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	22.8%	8.3%	31.7%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	22.8%	8.3%	31.7%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	22.8%	8.3%	28.6%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	22.8%	8.3%	28.6%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00	22.8%	8.3%	28.6%	35.2%	30.7%
2026-10-15T07:49:33+00:00	25.4%	8.3%	28.6%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	25.4%	8.3%	28.6%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	25.4%	8.3%	28.6%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	25.4%	8.3%	28.6%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	25.4%	8.3%	28.6%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00	25.4%	8.3%	31.4%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	25.4%	6.6%	31.4%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:17+00:00	25.4%	6.6%	31.4%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	23.8%	7.0%	31.4%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	23.8%	7.0%	31.4%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	23.8%	6.3%	31.4%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	23.8%	6.3%	31.4%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	23.8%	6.3%	30.3%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	23.8%	6.3%	30.3%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	23.8%	6.3%	30.3%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	23.8%	6.3%	30.3%	44.2%	26.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	22.3%	6.3%	30.3%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	22.3%	6.3%	30.3%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	22.3%	6.3%	30.3%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	22.3%	6.3%	30.3%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	22.3%	5.0%	27.0%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	22.3%	5.0%	27.0%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	22.3%	5.0%	27.0%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	23.8%	5.0%	27.0%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	23.8%	5.0%	27.0%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	23.8%	5.0%	27.0%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	23.8%	5.0%	27.0%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	23.8%	5.0%	27.0%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	23.8%	5.0%	31.4%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	23.8%	5.0%	31.4%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	23.8%	5.0%	31.4%	41.3%	44.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	22.4%	5.0%	31.4%	41.3%	60.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	22.4%	5.0%	31.4%	41.3%	60.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	22.4%	5.0%	31.4%	41.3%	60.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	22.4%	5.0%	31.4%	41.3%	60.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	22.4%	5.0%	31.4%	41.3%	60.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:00	22.4%	7.9%	35.3%	41.3%	60.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	22.4%	7.9%	35.3%	41.3%	60.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	22.4%	7.9%	35.3%	41.3%	60.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:22+00:00	24.0%	7.9%	35.3%	46.8%	60.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	23.9%	8.0%	35.3%	46.8%	60.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:26+00:00	23.9%	7.5%	35.3%	46.8%	60.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	23.9%	7.5%	35.3%	46.8%	60.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	23.9%	7.5%	35.3%	46.8%	60.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	23.9%	7.5%	36.6%	46.8%	60.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	23.9%	7.5%	36.6%	46.8%	60.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	23.9%	7.5%	36.6%	46.8%	60.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	36.6%	46.8%	60.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:24+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	36.6%	46.8%	60.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	36.6%	46.8%	60.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	36.6%	46.8%	60.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	36.6%	37.4%	60.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	21.6%	5.6%	30.3%	37.4%	60.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:24+00:00	21.6%	5.6%	30.3%	37.4%	60.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	21.6%	5.6%	30.3%	37.4%	60.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	23.1%	5.6%	30.3%	37.4%	60.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	23.1%	5.6%	30.3%	37.4%	60.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	23.1%	5.6%	30.3%	37.4%	60.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	23.1%	5.6%	30.3%	37.4%	60.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:34+00:00	23.1%	5.6%	30.3%	37.4%	60.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	23.1%	5.6%	25.7%	37.4%	60.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	23.1%	5.6%	25.7%	37.4%	60.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	23.1%	5.6%	25.7%	37.4%	60.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	60%	59.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	61.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	62.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	24%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	63.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	65.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 60°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261017-TMAX-LE60
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 60°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗