KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST—Time unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

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Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	1.7%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	34.3%	20.4%	10.2%	—	38.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	59.4%	54.4%	44.9%	—	50.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	78.9%	59.8%	52.3%	—	43.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	65.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	63.3%	69.2%	42.9%	—	42.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	1.4%	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	62.3%	69.2%	29.3%	—	33.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	40.7%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	50.9%	61.3%	11.3%	—	14.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	49.1%	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	31.4%	51.8%	12.4%	—	5.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	30.9%	47.2%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	35.7%	41.3%	8.2%	—	13.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	27.4%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	28.5%	44.9%	4.4%	—	19.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	26.2%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	22.1%	28.2%	7.0%	—	15.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	22.3%	22.3%	0.0%	—	16.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	22.4%	32.0%	4.5%	—	19.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	19.9%	31.4%	5.5%	—	16.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	15.1%	35.4%	3.3%	17.4%	12.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	15.0%	46.1%	2.2%	—	10.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	12.0%	50.0%	4.3%	16.5%	8.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	17.3%	52.8%	2.1%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	25.6%	62.8%	5.9%	23.4%	12.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	28.5%	53.0%	2.7%	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	25.0%	53.2%	2.0%	22.6%	6.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	29.5%	56.6%	5.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗