WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 11 · 10:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
85%
EPS
72%
WN2
70%
AIFS
18%
Consensus
61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 51.3¢Risks 51.35u
VS
AIFSNO 48.7¢Risks 48.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +48.65u · AIFS −48.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-11T10:33:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.5% · 2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.5% · 2026-10-11T10:33:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-11T10:33:45+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00IFS HRES: 84.7% · 2026-10-11T10:33:45+00:0010-11 07:3110-11 09:0310-11 10:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:33:45+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:0018.0%72.5%70.1%84.7%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:0018.0%72.5%70.1%84.7%
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:0018.0%72.5%70.1%84.7%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:0018.0%72.5%70.1%84.7%
2026-10-11T10:33:45+00:0018.0%72.5%70.1%84.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES85%76.0°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble72%73.5°F6.7°F2026-10-10 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 270%72.3°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:00Pending
National Blend52%70.0°F9.9°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
AIFS Single18%64.4°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗