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KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≤ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 00:37 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
6%
AIFS
5%
ICON
3%
EPS
1%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 3.5¢Risks 0.89u
VS
WN2NO 96.5¢Risks 24.11u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +24.11u · WN2 −24.11u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.5% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.7% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.3% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 95.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 91.3% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.4% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 93.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 76.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 83.6% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 90.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 86.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 89.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 69.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 37.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 22.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 21.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 26.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 99.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 18.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 46.3% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.8% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0010-03 06:0010-11 00:0010-18 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:0078.8%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:0029.2%————46.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:0056.4%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:0034.0%————10.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:005.8%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:0049.5%————4.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0025.7%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0014.0%————14.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0012.3%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0027.0%————15.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0086.6%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0052.7%————14.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0090.9%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0056.4%————27.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0055.3%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0017.9%————20.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0016.5%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.1%————17.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:002.0%————21.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:005.4%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:005.1%————22.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0097.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0095.2%————18.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0091.3%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0081.1%—93.4%——9.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0065.6%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0051.3%—76.1%——9.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0072.4%—83.6%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0023.1%—90.1%——6.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0020.8%—86.0%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0048.6%—89.5%——12.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0020.8%—69.8%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:009.3%11.9%22.4%37.6%—9.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:005.3%—9.8%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:005.7%2.9%3.9%6.4%—4.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:007.2%—3.6%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:006.0%0.6%2.4%3.8%—5.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:006.6%—1.6%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:007.5%1.6%1.1%5.3%—5.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:009.2%63.6%0.8%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:006.6%1.4%0.9%9.0%—7.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0015.7%4.5%0.8%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0011.8%2.3%1.2%22.1%—18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0012.1%2.2%1.5%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0013.9%5.5%1.7%17.8%—31.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0012.7%5.1%1.9%——39.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0020.3%3.4%2.4%21.0%—14.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:007.3%4.9%1.2%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0017.6%4.0%1.4%26.8%—7.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0014.4%4.0%1.8%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0015.5%4.5%2.9%16.2%—7.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0012.9%3.8%3.8%99.8%—5.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0012.1%3.1%1.5%17.5%—3.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:008.7%3.1%1.3%13.2%—4.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:006.3%3.7%0.7%16.6%3.0%4.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:006.0%3.0%0.2%18.2%—4.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:006.1%3.2%0.1%9.5%2.0%4.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:004.7%1.4%0.1%13.2%—3.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:003.5%0.4%0.0%4.4%0.5%1.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:004.1%0.2%0.0%7.0%—2.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:002.6%0.2%0.0%6.6%0.2%2.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0043.4%0.1%0.0%1.7%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend11%66.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
NWS forecast8%66.0°F3.9°F2026-10-15 15:00Pending
IFS HRES6%67.4°F4.5°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single5%67.7°F4.3°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
ICON3%68.0°F4.0°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%69.5°F4.0°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%68.3°F3.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 60°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-LE60
Opened Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗