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KBNA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≤ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 00:37 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
6%
AIFS
5%
ICON
3%
EPS
1%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 3.5¢Risks 0.89u
VS
WN2NO 96.5¢Risks 24.11u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +24.11u · WN2 −24.11u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.9% · 2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.6% · 2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00IFS HRES: 6.1% · 2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00IFS HRES: 6.1% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00IFS HRES: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:0010-15 07:0310-15 23:5210-16 00:37
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:003.6%3.9%1.6%11.9%3.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:004.6%1.3%1.0%6.1%2.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:004.6%1.3%1.0%6.1%2.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:004.6%1.3%1.0%6.1%2.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend11%66.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
NWS forecast8%66.0°F3.9°F2026-10-15 15:00Pending
IFS HRES6%67.4°F4.5°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single5%67.7°F4.3°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
ICON3%68.0°F4.0°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%69.5°F4.0°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%68.3°F3.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 60°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261018-TMAX-LE60
Opened Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗