KBNA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

57%

47%

44%

31%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

ICONNO 54.8¢Risks 54.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.80u · ICON −54.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	16.4%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	5.9%	67.0%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	29.8%	11.5%	14.5%	—	37.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	56.6%	33.7%	31.0%	—	44.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	56.8%	26.4%	12.9%	—	39.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	46.8%	67.0%	30.1%	—	23.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	1.9%	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	42.5%	67.8%	25.8%	—	15.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	38.2%	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	50.0%	41.3%	18.4%	—	25.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	50.9%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	48.2%	34.7%	9.4%	—	29.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	50.9%	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	42.3%	35.7%	5.9%	—	25.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	41.1%	29.9%	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	36.9%	35.9%	4.4%	—	31.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.5%	40.6%	37.5%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	37.1%	39.2%	3.1%	0.0%	27.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	34.6%	46.6%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	34.1%	44.2%	5.4%	28.9%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	40.5%	42.8%	4.8%	—	29.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	52.5%	43.8%	4.9%	0.0%	26.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	46.1%	42.3%	4.6%	—	22.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	43.3%	36.8%	4.0%	26.2%	18.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	41.7%	36.3%	3.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	44.2%	42.8%	3.2%	28.0%	23.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	45.5%	45.5%	1.8%	—	6.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	33.1%	31.7%	1.0%	18.1%	8.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	35.5%	40.2%	4.1%	—	21.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	60%	73.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	73.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	72.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	72.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	31%	70.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗