KBNA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

57%

47%

44%

31%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

ICONNO 54.8¢Risks 54.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.80u · ICON −54.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:33+00:00	54.9%	74.8%	30.3%	49.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	54.9%	74.8%	30.3%	49.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	54.9%	74.8%	30.3%	49.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	54.9%	74.8%	30.3%	49.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	54.9%	74.8%	30.3%	49.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	54.9%	74.8%	30.3%	49.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	54.9%	74.8%	30.3%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	54.9%	74.8%	30.3%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	54.9%	74.8%	30.3%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	54.9%	74.8%	30.3%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	54.9%	68.9%	29.2%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	54.9%	68.9%	29.2%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	54.9%	68.9%	29.2%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	54.9%	68.9%	29.2%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	59.7%	68.9%	29.2%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	59.7%	68.9%	29.2%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	59.7%	68.9%	29.2%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	59.7%	68.9%	29.2%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	59.7%	68.9%	41.1%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	59.7%	68.9%	41.1%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	59.7%	68.9%	41.1%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	59.7%	68.9%	41.1%	47.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00	60.0%	68.9%	41.1%	56.4%	37.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	60.0%	68.9%	41.1%	56.4%	37.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	60.0%	68.9%	41.1%	56.4%	37.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	60.0%	68.9%	41.1%	56.4%	37.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	60.0%	70.0%	30.3%	56.4%	37.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	60.0%	70.0%	30.3%	56.4%	37.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	60.0%	70.0%	30.3%	56.4%	37.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	60.0%	70.0%	30.3%	56.4%	37.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	58.0%	69.6%	30.3%	56.4%	37.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	57.1%	59.8%	23.5%	46.8%	30.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	57.1%	59.8%	44.5%	46.8%	30.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	57.1%	59.8%	44.5%	46.8%	30.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	57.1%	59.8%	44.5%	46.8%	30.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	60%	73.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	73.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	72.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	72.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	31%	70.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗