KBNA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

37%

27%

14%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 23.0¢Risks 23.00u

WN2NO 77.0¢Risks 77.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +77.00u · WN2 −77.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	35.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	9.6%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	2.9%	54.0%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	18.9%	6.0%	7.9%	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	42.0%	21.5%	19.4%	—	30.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	41.7%	15.5%	6.5%	—	25.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	31.6%	51.6%	17.9%	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	0.7%	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	27.2%	51.7%	14.3%	—	7.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	23.3%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	33.0%	25.5%	9.0%	—	13.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	33.4%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	30.6%	19.6%	3.8%	—	16.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	32.6%	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	24.7%	19.7%	2.0%	—	12.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	23.4%	15.2%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	19.7%	19.0%	1.3%	—	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	22.0%	19.8%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	19.0%	20.6%	0.8%	0.0%	12.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	16.8%	25.8%	0.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	16.0%	23.3%	1.4%	12.7%	10.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	19.9%	21.6%	1.2%	—	12.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	28.7%	21.7%	1.1%	0.0%	10.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	22.8%	20.0%	1.0%	—	8.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	20.0%	15.7%	0.8%	9.5%	5.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	18.2%	14.7%	0.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	19.1%	18.2%	0.5%	9.5%	7.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	19.2%	19.2%	0.2%	—	1.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	11.0%	10.2%	0.1%	4.4%	1.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	11.5%	14.1%	0.5%	—	5.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	73.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	73.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	72.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	14%	70.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	70.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗