KBNA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

37%

27%

14%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 23.0¢Risks 23.00u

WN2NO 77.0¢Risks 77.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +77.00u · WN2 −77.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:09+00:00	23.7%	36.7%	43.3%	75.6%	24.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	23.7%	36.7%	43.3%	75.6%	24.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	23.7%	36.7%	43.3%	75.6%	24.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	23.7%	36.7%	43.3%	75.6%	24.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	23.7%	36.7%	43.3%	75.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	38.0%	47.7%	11.5%	35.3%	19.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	38.0%	44.5%	11.5%	35.3%	19.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:55+00:00	38.0%	44.5%	11.5%	35.3%	19.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	38.0%	44.5%	9.6%	35.3%	19.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:22+00:00	38.0%	44.5%	9.6%	35.3%	19.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	38.0%	44.5%	9.6%	35.3%	19.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	35.2%	44.5%	9.6%	26.8%	14.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	35.2%	44.5%	9.6%	26.8%	14.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	35.2%	44.5%	9.6%	26.8%	14.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	35.2%	44.5%	9.6%	26.8%	14.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	35.2%	44.5%	9.6%	26.8%	14.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	35.2%	38.1%	7.9%	26.8%	14.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	35.2%	38.1%	7.9%	26.8%	14.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	35.2%	38.1%	7.9%	26.8%	14.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	37.1%	38.1%	7.9%	26.8%	14.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	37.1%	38.1%	7.9%	26.8%	14.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	37.1%	38.1%	7.9%	26.8%	14.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	37.1%	38.1%	7.9%	26.8%	14.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	73.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	73.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	72.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	14%	70.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	70.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗