KBNA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

68%

68%

59%

54%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.3¢Risks 65.25u

WN2NO 34.7¢Risks 34.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.75u · WN2 −34.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	69.8%	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	30.1%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	17.1%	36.1%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	59.7%	3.6%	5.4%	—	47.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	76.8%	10.9%	20.4%	—	35.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	47.7%	20.0%	18.4%	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	58.7%	42.1%	18.4%	—	35.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	3.8%	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	62.3%	38.5%	13.4%	—	35.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	37.4%	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	50.9%	41.3%	9.0%	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	52.7%	41.1%	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	47.2%	43.6%	15.4%	—	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	51.9%	38.8%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	41.3%	42.3%	12.1%	—	38.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	45.0%	45.0%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	53.1%	49.0%	10.8%	0.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	58.4%	46.8%	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	61.8%	39.2%	14.3%	—	41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.6%	59.0%	38.9%	0.0%	—	31.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	58.1%	28.9%	15.3%	0.0%	26.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	56.0%	22.5%	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	57.4%	21.7%	12.4%	40.1%	35.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	26.9%	29.1%	9.8%	—	22.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	47.3%	28.4%	5.3%	39.4%	24.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	50.0%	39.0%	9.8%	—	30.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	57.2%	42.8%	23.4%	55.8%	44.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	48.5%	12.0%	—	23.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	76.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	76%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	76.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	76.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	75.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	74.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗