KBNA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

68%

68%

59%

54%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.3¢Risks 65.25u

WN2NO 34.7¢Risks 34.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.75u · WN2 −34.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:11+00:00	71.7%	44.1%	68.2%	41.0%	85.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	71.7%	44.1%	68.2%	41.0%	85.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	71.7%	44.1%	68.2%	41.0%	85.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	71.7%	44.1%	62.6%	41.0%	85.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	71.7%	44.1%	62.6%	41.0%	85.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	71.7%	44.1%	62.6%	41.0%	85.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	61.7%	44.1%	62.6%	48.2%	68.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	61.7%	44.1%	62.6%	48.2%	68.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	61.7%	44.1%	62.6%	48.2%	68.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	61.7%	44.1%	62.6%	48.2%	68.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	61.7%	44.1%	62.6%	48.2%	68.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	61.7%	47.0%	61.0%	48.2%	68.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	61.7%	47.0%	61.0%	48.2%	68.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	61.7%	47.0%	61.0%	48.2%	68.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	61.0%	47.0%	61.0%	48.2%	68.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	61.0%	47.0%	61.0%	48.2%	68.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	61.0%	47.0%	61.0%	48.2%	68.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:26+00:00	67.7%	64.8%	53.2%	54.8%	64.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	67.7%	64.8%	53.2%	54.8%	64.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	67.7%	64.8%	53.2%	54.8%	64.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	67.7%	64.8%	60.6%	54.8%	64.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	67.7%	64.8%	60.6%	54.8%	64.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	67.7%	64.8%	60.6%	54.8%	64.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	67.7%	64.8%	60.6%	54.8%	61.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:24+00:00	67.7%	64.8%	60.6%	54.8%	61.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	67.7%	64.8%	60.6%	54.8%	61.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	67.7%	64.8%	60.6%	54.8%	61.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	67.7%	64.8%	60.6%	65.5%	61.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	67.7%	69.8%	59.6%	65.5%	61.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:24+00:00	67.7%	69.8%	59.6%	65.5%	61.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	67.7%	69.8%	59.6%	65.5%	61.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	71.5%	69.8%	59.6%	65.5%	61.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	71.5%	69.8%	59.6%	65.5%	61.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	71.5%	69.8%	59.6%	65.5%	61.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	71.5%	69.8%	59.6%	65.5%	61.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:35+00:00	68.8%	81.5%	55.9%	63.1%	48.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	68.8%	81.5%	55.9%	63.1%	48.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	68.8%	81.5%	55.9%	63.1%	48.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	68.8%	81.5%	55.9%	63.1%	48.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	68.8%	81.5%	55.9%	63.1%	48.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	68.8%	81.5%	55.9%	63.1%	48.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	69.6%	81.5%	55.9%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	69.6%	81.5%	55.9%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	69.6%	81.5%	55.9%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	69.6%	81.5%	55.9%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	69.6%	76.8%	58.2%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	69.6%	76.8%	58.2%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	69.6%	76.8%	58.2%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	69.6%	76.8%	58.2%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	69.6%	76.8%	58.2%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	69.6%	76.8%	58.2%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	69.6%	76.8%	58.2%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	69.6%	76.8%	58.2%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	69.6%	76.8%	66.1%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	69.6%	76.8%	66.1%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	69.6%	76.8%	66.1%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	69.6%	76.8%	66.1%	60.6%	59.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00	70.6%	76.8%	66.1%	67.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	70.6%	76.8%	66.1%	67.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	70.6%	76.8%	66.1%	67.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	70.6%	76.8%	66.1%	67.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	70.6%	77.1%	53.9%	67.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	70.6%	77.1%	53.9%	67.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	70.6%	77.1%	53.9%	67.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	70.6%	77.1%	53.9%	67.8%	58.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	68.0%	76.6%	53.9%	67.8%	58.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	76.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	76%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	76.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	76.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	75.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	74.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗