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KBNA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
11%
HRES
7%
EPS
6%
WN2
2%
ICON
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 6.3¢Risks 1.59u
VS
ICONNO 93.7¢Risks 23.41u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.41u · ICON −23.41u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 29.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-05 06:0010-12 18:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:003.3%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:000.9%————7.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:004.8%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:008.3%————6.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0011.8%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:004.5%————4.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0031.6%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:002.3%————4.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:002.2%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:004.7%————4.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0014.9%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:005.2%————4.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.7%————8.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.9%————13.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:007.3%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0011.2%————17.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:003.3%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0014.3%————19.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:009.4%—0.0%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:008.1%————12.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0014.8%—5.5%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0024.2%————13.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0022.9%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0010.1%—28.0%——15.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:006.2%—10.0%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.5%—4.8%——9.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:009.4%—2.0%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0017.1%1.6%6.2%——11.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0013.8%—18.9%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0017.1%16.2%0.1%0.2%—9.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0014.8%—5.1%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0013.2%29.1%0.6%1.7%—4.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:008.0%—2.2%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:004.4%8.1%1.5%1.3%—1.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:003.9%—2.8%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:004.9%11.9%5.5%1.1%—3.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:005.3%0.1%8.8%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:003.9%12.5%3.9%0.5%—3.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:003.8%3.4%4.7%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:002.8%6.5%3.9%0.2%—1.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:003.2%6.6%3.6%——2.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:002.9%4.6%3.8%0.4%—3.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:003.4%5.3%2.6%——2.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:003.0%2.7%2.9%0.2%—2.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:002.0%3.0%3.0%——2.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:001.8%4.2%3.4%0.1%0.0%1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.6%5.0%2.6%——1.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:001.4%5.3%1.4%0.1%—1.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.9%4.0%1.2%0.0%—0.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.5%3.3%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.5%2.5%0.2%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.6%2.3%0.1%0.0%0.7%0.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%0.2%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.4%0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.7%0.3%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.9%0.3%0.1%0.8%0.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.4%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single11%76.7°F3.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast7%77.0°F3.1°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS HRES7%76.0°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble6%76.1°F3.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend2%75.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%75.4°F3.1°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
ICON2%73.8°F3.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗