KBNA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 6.3¢Risks 1.59u

ICONNO 93.7¢Risks 23.41u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.41u · ICON −23.41u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:15+00:00	38.8%	9.1%	21.6%	18.0%	20.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	38.8%	9.1%	21.6%	18.0%	20.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	38.8%	9.1%	21.6%	18.0%	20.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	38.8%	9.1%	21.6%	18.0%	20.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	38.8%	6.3%	24.7%	18.0%	20.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	38.8%	6.3%	24.7%	18.0%	20.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	38.8%	6.3%	24.7%	18.0%	20.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	38.8%	6.3%	24.7%	18.0%	20.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	33.5%	6.3%	24.7%	18.0%	20.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	33.5%	6.0%	24.7%	18.0%	20.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	33.5%	6.0%	24.7%	18.0%	20.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	33.5%	6.0%	24.7%	18.0%	20.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	33.5%	6.0%	22.9%	18.0%	20.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	33.5%	6.0%	22.9%	18.0%	20.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	33.5%	6.0%	22.9%	18.0%	20.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	39.5%	6.0%	22.9%	18.0%	45.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	39.5%	6.0%	22.9%	18.0%	45.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	39.5%	6.0%	22.9%	18.0%	45.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:14+00:00	39.5%	6.0%	22.9%	18.0%	45.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	39.5%	6.0%	22.9%	20.2%	45.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	39.5%	7.4%	24.7%	20.2%	45.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	39.5%	7.4%	24.7%	20.2%	45.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	39.5%	7.4%	24.7%	20.2%	45.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	36.1%	7.4%	24.7%	20.2%	45.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	36.1%	7.4%	24.7%	20.2%	45.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:42+00:00	36.1%	7.4%	24.7%	20.2%	45.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	36.1%	7.4%	24.7%	20.2%	45.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	36.1%	7.4%	24.7%	20.2%	45.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	36.1%	7.4%	24.7%	20.2%	45.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	36.1%	7.4%	24.7%	20.2%	45.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00	36.1%	7.4%	24.7%	20.2%	45.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	33.2%	7.4%	24.7%	20.2%	53.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	33.2%	7.4%	24.7%	20.2%	53.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	33.2%	7.4%	24.7%	20.2%	53.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	33.2%	7.4%	24.7%	20.2%	53.4%
2026-10-14T10:32:42+00:00	33.2%	7.4%	24.7%	9.8%	53.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:48+00:00	33.2%	2.5%	14.8%	9.8%	53.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	33.2%	2.5%	14.8%	9.8%	53.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	33.2%	2.5%	14.8%	9.8%	53.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	22.5%	2.5%	14.8%	9.8%	53.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	23.5%	2.5%	15.1%	9.8%	53.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:11+00:00	23.5%	2.9%	15.1%	9.8%	53.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	23.5%	2.9%	15.1%	9.8%	53.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	23.5%	2.9%	15.1%	9.8%	53.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	23.5%	2.9%	11.9%	9.8%	53.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	23.5%	2.9%	11.9%	9.8%	53.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	23.5%	2.9%	11.9%	9.8%	53.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	15.8%	2.9%	11.9%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	15.8%	2.9%	11.9%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	15.8%	2.9%	11.9%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	15.8%	2.9%	11.9%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	15.8%	2.9%	11.9%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	15.8%	3.5%	11.1%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	15.8%	3.5%	11.1%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	15.8%	3.5%	11.1%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	15.4%	3.5%	11.1%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	15.4%	3.5%	11.1%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	15.4%	3.5%	11.1%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:05+00:00	15.4%	3.5%	11.1%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	15.4%	3.5%	11.1%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	15.4%	3.5%	15.2%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	15.4%	3.5%	15.2%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00	15.4%	3.5%	15.2%	13.4%	30.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:33+00:00	15.7%	3.5%	15.2%	16.6%	28.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	15.7%	3.5%	15.2%	16.6%	28.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	15.7%	3.5%	15.2%	16.6%	28.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	15.7%	3.5%	15.2%	16.6%	28.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	15.7%	3.5%	15.2%	16.6%	28.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00	15.7%	3.5%	9.0%	16.6%	28.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	15.7%	1.6%	9.0%	16.6%	28.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:17+00:00	15.7%	1.6%	9.0%	16.6%	28.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	18.3%	1.6%	9.0%	16.6%	29.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	18.3%	1.6%	9.0%	16.6%	29.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:00+00:00	18.3%	1.7%	9.0%	16.6%	29.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	18.3%	1.7%	9.0%	16.6%	29.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	18.3%	1.7%	13.7%	16.6%	29.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	18.3%	1.7%	13.7%	16.6%	29.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	18.3%	1.7%	13.7%	16.6%	29.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	18.3%	1.7%	13.7%	16.6%	29.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	15.7%	1.7%	13.7%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	15.7%	1.7%	13.7%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	15.7%	1.7%	13.7%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	15.7%	1.7%	13.7%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	8.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	8.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	8.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	8.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	8.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	8.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	8.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	8.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	6.6%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	6.6%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	6.6%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	12.0%	2.3%	6.6%	15.4%	14.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	12.0%	2.3%	6.6%	15.4%	14.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	12.0%	2.3%	6.6%	15.4%	14.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	12.0%	2.3%	6.6%	15.4%	14.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	12.0%	2.3%	6.6%	15.4%	14.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:00	12.0%	2.1%	3.6%	15.4%	14.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	12.0%	2.1%	3.6%	15.4%	14.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	12.0%	2.1%	3.6%	15.4%	14.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:22+00:00	14.3%	2.1%	3.6%	10.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	14.2%	2.1%	3.6%	10.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:26+00:00	14.2%	2.1%	3.6%	10.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	14.2%	2.1%	3.6%	10.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	14.2%	2.1%	3.6%	10.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	14.2%	2.1%	5.3%	10.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	14.2%	2.1%	5.3%	10.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	14.2%	2.1%	5.3%	10.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	14.2%	2.1%	5.3%	10.0%	12.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:24+00:00	14.2%	2.1%	5.3%	10.0%	12.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	14.2%	2.1%	5.3%	10.0%	12.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	14.2%	2.1%	5.3%	10.0%	12.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	14.2%	2.1%	5.3%	15.9%	12.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	14.2%	2.9%	5.1%	15.9%	12.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:24+00:00	14.2%	2.9%	5.1%	15.9%	12.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	14.2%	2.9%	5.1%	15.9%	12.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	16.8%	2.9%	5.1%	15.9%	12.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	16.8%	2.9%	5.1%	15.9%	12.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	16.8%	2.9%	5.1%	15.9%	12.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	16.8%	2.9%	5.1%	15.9%	12.5%
2026-10-17T04:41:34+00:00	16.8%	2.9%	5.1%	15.9%	12.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	16.8%	2.9%	5.6%	15.9%	12.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	16.8%	2.9%	5.6%	15.9%	12.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	15.2%	6.5%	2.7%	10.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	15.2%	6.5%	2.7%	10.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	15.2%	6.5%	2.7%	10.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	12.6%	6.5%	2.7%	10.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	12.6%	6.8%	2.7%	10.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:35+00:00	12.6%	6.5%	2.7%	10.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	12.6%	6.5%	2.7%	10.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	12.6%	6.5%	2.7%	10.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	12.6%	6.5%	2.7%	10.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	12.6%	6.5%	2.7%	10.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	12.6%	6.5%	2.7%	10.9%	3.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	13.1%	6.5%	2.7%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	13.1%	6.5%	2.7%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	13.1%	6.5%	2.7%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	13.1%	6.5%	2.7%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	13.1%	5.5%	3.1%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	13.1%	5.5%	3.1%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	13.1%	5.5%	3.1%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	13.1%	5.5%	3.1%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	13.1%	5.5%	3.1%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	13.1%	5.5%	3.1%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	13.1%	5.5%	3.1%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	13.1%	5.5%	3.1%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	13.1%	5.5%	4.8%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	13.1%	5.5%	4.8%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	13.1%	5.5%	4.8%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	13.1%	5.5%	4.8%	9.7%	6.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00	11.9%	5.5%	4.8%	10.7%	4.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	11.9%	5.5%	4.8%	10.7%	4.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	11.9%	5.5%	4.8%	10.7%	4.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	11.9%	5.5%	4.8%	10.7%	4.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	10.5%	8.2%	1.5%	10.7%	4.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	10.5%	8.1%	1.5%	10.7%	4.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:55+00:00	10.5%	8.1%	1.5%	10.7%	4.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	10.5%	8.1%	1.4%	10.7%	4.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:22+00:00	10.5%	8.1%	1.4%	10.7%	4.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	10.5%	8.1%	1.4%	10.7%	4.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	10.0%	5.8%	2.5%	4.9%	3.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	10.0%	5.8%	2.5%	4.9%	3.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	10.0%	5.8%	2.5%	4.9%	3.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00	11.2%	5.8%	2.5%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	11.2%	5.8%	2.5%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	11.2%	5.8%	2.5%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	11.2%	5.8%	2.5%	6.9%	1.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00	11.2%	5.8%	2.5%	6.9%	1.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	11%	76.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	76.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	75.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	73.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗