KBNA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

83%

78%

73%

64%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 78.6¢Risks 78.60u

ICONNO 21.4¢Risks 21.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +21.40u · ICON −21.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	72.3%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	44.1%	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	11.3%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	4.6%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	41.3%	52.0%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	60.4%	12.2%	7.7%	—	38.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	81.1%	44.2%	26.0%	—	47.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	55.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	79.5%	50.8%	30.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	54.0%	51.6%	16.4%	—	45.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	4.5%	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	54.2%	54.2%	18.9%	—	58.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	31.9%	51.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.8%	50.9%	51.7%	14.6%	—	54.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	64.1%	55.4%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	62.7%	60.0%	23.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	63.9%	62.1%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	63.4%	53.9%	22.5%	—	51.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	56.0%	50.0%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.9%	58.2%	42.8%	21.2%	—	38.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	64.5%	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	66.9%	46.7%	19.0%	—	54.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	62.2%	48.9%	0.0%	—	38.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	62.6%	44.2%	16.0%	0.0%	44.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	64.1%	51.2%	13.2%	—	47.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	64.6%	52.5%	30.9%	46.3%	59.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	55.1%	23.8%	—	41.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	52.7%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	78.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	78.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	78.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	77.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	76.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	64%	76.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗