KBNA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

60%

59%

49%

29%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 53.5¢Risks 53.50u

EPSNO 46.5¢Risks 46.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.50u · EPS −46.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	27.8%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	4.6%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	1.5%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.0%	23.3%	32.4%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	39.6%	4.5%	2.5%	—	20.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	62.9%	24.3%	11.7%	—	26.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	59.8%	28.9%	14.2%	—	28.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	30.9%	28.8%	5.7%	—	23.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	1.0%	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	30.0%	30.0%	6.6%	—	33.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	13.2%	27.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	26.2%	26.9%	4.3%	—	29.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	37.6%	29.4%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	35.6%	33.0%	7.9%	—	24.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	36.1%	34.3%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	34.8%	26.3%	6.8%	—	24.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	27.4%	22.6%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	28.5%	17.0%	5.8%	—	14.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	33.5%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	35.1%	18.3%	4.5%	—	23.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	29.6%	19.0%	0.0%	—	12.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	28.9%	15.3%	3.1%	0.0%	15.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	29.3%	19.1%	2.2%	—	16.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	28.7%	19.1%	7.5%	15.1%	24.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	20.0%	4.6%	—	11.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	78%	82.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	78.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	78.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	77.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	75.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	74.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗