KBNA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

60%

59%

49%

29%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 53.5¢Risks 53.50u

EPSNO 46.5¢Risks 46.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.50u · EPS −46.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:42+00:00	76.7%	56.4%	72.4%	41.3%	50.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:05+00:00	60.5%	41.4%	57.1%	35.3%	62.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	60.5%	41.4%	57.1%	35.3%	62.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	60.5%	41.4%	57.9%	35.3%	62.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	60.5%	41.4%	57.9%	35.3%	62.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00	60.5%	41.4%	57.9%	35.3%	62.2%
2026-10-15T07:49:33+00:00	71.7%	41.4%	57.9%	49.4%	77.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	71.7%	41.4%	57.9%	49.4%	77.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	71.7%	41.4%	57.9%	49.4%	77.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	71.7%	41.4%	57.9%	49.4%	77.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	71.7%	41.4%	57.9%	49.4%	77.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00	71.7%	41.4%	59.3%	49.4%	77.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	71.7%	29.3%	59.3%	49.4%	77.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:17+00:00	71.7%	29.3%	59.3%	49.4%	77.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	60.2%	29.3%	59.3%	49.4%	77.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	60.2%	29.3%	59.3%	49.4%	77.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	78%	82.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	78.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	78.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	77.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	75.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	74.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗