KBNA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

14%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 11.5¢Risks 5.77u

ICONNO 88.5¢Risks 44.23u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.23u · ICON −44.23u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:44+00:00	50.7%	12.9%	44.1%	19.7%	35.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:49+00:00	50.7%	8.4%	31.5%	19.7%	35.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	50.7%	8.4%	31.5%	19.7%	35.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	50.7%	8.4%	31.5%	19.7%	35.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	29.1%	8.4%	31.5%	19.7%	35.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	29.1%	8.4%	31.6%	19.7%	35.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:11+00:00	29.1%	8.4%	31.6%	19.7%	35.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	29.1%	8.4%	31.6%	19.7%	35.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	29.1%	8.4%	31.6%	19.7%	35.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	29.1%	8.4%	28.8%	19.7%	35.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	29.1%	8.4%	28.8%	19.7%	35.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	29.1%	8.4%	28.8%	19.7%	35.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	33.5%	8.4%	28.8%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	33.5%	8.4%	28.8%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	33.5%	8.4%	28.8%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	33.5%	8.4%	28.8%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	33.5%	8.4%	28.8%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	33.5%	9.7%	26.8%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	33.5%	9.7%	26.8%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	33.5%	9.7%	26.8%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	32.8%	9.7%	26.8%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	32.8%	9.7%	26.8%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	32.8%	9.7%	26.8%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:05+00:00	32.8%	9.7%	26.8%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	32.8%	9.7%	26.8%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	32.8%	9.7%	27.5%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	32.8%	9.7%	27.5%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00	32.8%	9.7%	27.5%	15.6%	46.4%
2026-10-15T07:49:33+00:00	43.4%	9.7%	27.5%	26.7%	57.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	43.4%	9.7%	27.5%	26.7%	57.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	43.4%	9.7%	27.5%	26.7%	57.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	43.4%	9.7%	27.5%	26.7%	57.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	43.4%	9.7%	27.5%	26.7%	57.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00	43.4%	9.7%	26.7%	26.7%	57.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	43.4%	2.8%	26.7%	26.7%	57.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:17+00:00	43.4%	2.8%	26.7%	26.7%	57.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	31.5%	2.8%	26.7%	26.7%	57.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	31.5%	2.8%	26.7%	26.7%	57.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:02+00:00	31.5%	3.2%	26.7%	26.7%	57.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	31.5%	3.2%	26.7%	26.7%	57.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	31.5%	3.2%	30.4%	26.7%	57.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	31.5%	3.2%	30.4%	26.7%	57.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	31.5%	3.2%	30.4%	26.7%	57.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	31.5%	3.2%	30.4%	26.7%	57.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	31.5%	3.2%	30.4%	28.8%	55.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	31.5%	3.2%	30.4%	28.8%	55.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	31.5%	3.2%	30.4%	28.8%	55.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	31.5%	3.2%	30.4%	28.8%	55.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	31.5%	4.0%	24.7%	28.8%	55.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	31.5%	4.0%	24.7%	28.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	31.5%	4.0%	24.7%	28.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	32.1%	4.0%	24.7%	28.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	32.1%	4.0%	24.7%	28.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	32.1%	4.0%	24.7%	28.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	32.1%	4.0%	24.7%	28.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	32.1%	4.0%	24.7%	28.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	32.1%	4.0%	21.4%	28.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00	32.1%	4.0%	21.4%	28.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	32.1%	4.0%	21.4%	28.8%	55.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	27.9%	4.0%	21.4%	28.8%	26.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	27.9%	4.0%	21.4%	28.8%	26.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	27.9%	4.0%	21.4%	28.8%	26.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	27.9%	4.0%	21.4%	28.8%	26.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	27.9%	4.0%	21.4%	28.8%	26.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:00	27.9%	4.9%	20.4%	28.8%	26.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	27.9%	4.9%	20.4%	28.8%	26.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	27.9%	4.9%	20.4%	28.8%	26.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:22+00:00	30.7%	4.9%	20.4%	23.9%	26.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	30.7%	4.9%	20.4%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:26+00:00	30.7%	5.6%	20.4%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	30.7%	5.6%	20.4%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	30.7%	5.6%	20.4%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	30.7%	5.6%	19.1%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	30.7%	5.6%	19.1%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	30.7%	5.6%	19.1%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	31.4%	5.6%	19.1%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:24+00:00	31.4%	5.6%	19.1%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	31.4%	5.6%	19.1%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	31.4%	5.6%	19.1%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	31.4%	5.6%	19.1%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	31.4%	7.4%	20.4%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:24+00:00	31.4%	7.4%	20.4%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	31.4%	7.4%	20.4%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	32.9%	7.4%	20.4%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	32.9%	7.4%	20.4%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	32.9%	7.4%	20.4%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	32.9%	7.4%	20.4%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:34+00:00	32.9%	7.4%	20.4%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	32.9%	7.4%	23.3%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	32.9%	7.4%	23.3%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	32.9%	7.4%	23.3%	23.9%	26.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:18+00:00	27.0%	7.4%	23.3%	21.8%	14.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	27.0%	7.4%	23.3%	21.8%	14.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:34+00:00	27.0%	7.4%	23.3%	21.8%	14.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	27.0%	7.4%	23.3%	21.8%	14.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	27.0%	7.4%	23.3%	21.8%	14.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	27.0%	15.0%	18.0%	21.8%	14.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	27.0%	15.0%	18.0%	21.8%	14.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	27.0%	15.0%	18.0%	21.8%	14.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	22.9%	15.0%	18.0%	21.8%	14.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	22.9%	15.0%	18.1%	21.8%	14.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:35+00:00	22.9%	15.9%	18.1%	21.8%	14.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	22.9%	15.9%	18.1%	21.8%	14.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	22.9%	15.9%	16.7%	21.8%	14.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	22.9%	15.9%	16.7%	21.8%	14.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	22.9%	15.9%	16.7%	21.8%	14.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	22.9%	15.9%	16.7%	21.8%	14.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	21.0%	15.9%	16.7%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	21.0%	15.9%	16.7%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	21.0%	15.9%	16.7%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	21.0%	15.9%	16.7%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	21.0%	13.6%	15.4%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	21.0%	13.6%	15.4%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	21.0%	13.6%	15.4%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	21.0%	13.6%	15.4%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	19.8%	13.6%	15.4%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	19.8%	13.6%	15.4%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	19.8%	13.6%	15.4%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	19.8%	13.6%	15.4%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	19.8%	13.6%	18.1%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	19.8%	13.6%	18.1%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	19.8%	13.6%	18.1%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	19.8%	13.6%	18.1%	16.4%	21.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00	18.7%	13.6%	18.1%	14.7%	10.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	18.7%	13.6%	18.1%	14.7%	10.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	18.7%	13.6%	18.1%	14.7%	10.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	18.7%	13.6%	18.1%	14.7%	10.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	18.7%	11.5%	10.6%	14.7%	10.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	18.7%	11.5%	10.6%	14.7%	10.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	18.7%	11.5%	10.6%	14.7%	10.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	18.7%	11.5%	10.6%	14.7%	10.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	16.8%	12.3%	10.6%	14.6%	11.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	16.8%	12.3%	10.6%	14.6%	11.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	16.8%	10.5%	10.6%	14.6%	11.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	16.8%	10.5%	10.6%	14.6%	11.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	16.8%	10.5%	8.6%	14.6%	11.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:22+00:00	16.8%	10.5%	8.6%	14.6%	11.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	16.8%	10.5%	8.6%	14.6%	11.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	17.4%	10.5%	8.6%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	17.4%	10.5%	8.6%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	17.4%	10.5%	8.6%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	17.4%	10.5%	8.6%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	17.4%	10.5%	8.6%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	17.4%	7.9%	6.9%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	17.4%	7.9%	6.9%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	17.4%	7.9%	6.9%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	17.4%	7.9%	6.9%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	17.4%	7.9%	6.9%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	17.4%	7.9%	6.9%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	17.4%	7.9%	6.9%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	17.4%	7.9%	6.9%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	17.4%	7.9%	12.4%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	17.4%	7.9%	12.4%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	17.4%	7.9%	12.4%	9.3%	8.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00	18.8%	7.9%	12.4%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	18.8%	7.9%	12.4%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	18.8%	7.9%	12.4%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	18.8%	7.9%	12.4%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00	18.8%	7.9%	12.4%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	18.8%	10.5%	7.8%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	18.8%	10.5%	7.8%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	18.8%	10.5%	7.8%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	13.9%	10.5%	7.8%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	13.8%	10.5%	7.8%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:00	13.8%	10.0%	7.8%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	13.8%	10.0%	7.8%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	13.8%	10.0%	7.8%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00	13.8%	10.0%	5.0%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	13.8%	10.0%	5.0%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	13.8%	10.0%	5.0%	15.3%	5.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	16.1%	10.0%	5.0%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	16.1%	10.0%	5.0%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	16.1%	10.0%	5.0%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	16.1%	10.0%	5.0%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:13+00:00	16.1%	10.0%	5.0%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	16.1%	10.0%	4.4%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	16.1%	10.0%	4.4%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	16.1%	10.0%	4.4%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	19.3%	10.0%	4.4%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	19.3%	10.0%	4.4%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	19.3%	10.0%	4.4%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:00	19.3%	10.0%	4.4%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	19.3%	10.0%	4.4%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	19.3%	10.0%	13.6%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	19.3%	10.0%	13.6%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	19.3%	10.0%	13.6%	11.1%	4.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	20.8%	10.0%	13.6%	11.1%	2.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	20.8%	10.0%	13.6%	11.1%	2.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	20.8%	10.0%	13.6%	11.1%	2.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	20.8%	10.0%	13.6%	11.1%	2.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00	20.8%	12.9%	7.9%	14.0%	2.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	20.8%	12.9%	7.9%	14.0%	2.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	20.8%	12.9%	7.9%	14.0%	2.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	20.8%	12.9%	7.9%	14.0%	2.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00	20.7%	12.9%	7.9%	14.0%	2.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	20.7%	12.9%	7.9%	14.0%	2.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	21%	78.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	77.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	77.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	77.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	2%	74.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗