KBNA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

14%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 11.5¢Risks 5.77u

ICONNO 88.5¢Risks 44.23u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.23u · ICON −44.23u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	12.0%	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	1.0%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	8.0%	12.8%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	16.6%	0.8%	0.4%	—	6.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	34.3%	7.6%	2.7%	—	8.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	30.3%	9.3%	3.3%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	9.7%	8.7%	0.9%	—	6.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	0.1%	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	8.7%	8.7%	0.9%	—	10.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	2.4%	7.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	6.5%	6.8%	0.5%	—	7.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	11.2%	7.5%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	9.8%	8.6%	1.0%	—	5.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	9.6%	8.8%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	8.6%	5.4%	0.7%	—	4.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	5.4%	4.0%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	5.5%	2.4%	0.5%	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	6.8%	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	7.0%	2.3%	0.3%	—	3.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	4.8%	2.2%	0.0%	—	1.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	4.2%	1.4%	0.1%	0.0%	1.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	4.0%	1.9%	0.1%	—	1.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	3.5%	1.7%	0.4%	1.1%	2.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	1.6%	0.1%	—	0.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	21%	78.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	77.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	77.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	77.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	2%	74.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	77.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗