KBNA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

79%

77%

63%

61%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.3¢Risks 35.15u

ICONNO 29.7¢Risks 14.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.85u · ICON −14.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	87.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	58.1%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	85.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	82.8%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	16.3%	60.0%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	85.1%	63.8%	11.9%	—	61.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	54.4%	58.7%	23.7%	—	50.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	59.8%	70.4%	30.9%	—	60.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	49.2%	58.7%	23.0%	—	49.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	4.5%	65.1%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	32.2%	55.0%	20.1%	—	40.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	28.1%	59.3%	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	41.3%	57.0%	21.4%	—	42.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	39.3%	57.1%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	47.2%	47.2%	19.0%	—	31.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	53.8%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	60.6%	53.9%	17.7%	—	44.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	56.0%	56.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	54.1%	54.1%	19.7%	—	39.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	64.5%	60.5%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	61.8%	60.8%	28.2%	58.7%	48.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	61.1%	0.0%	—	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	77.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	78.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	61%	75.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗