KBNA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

79%

77%

63%

61%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.3¢Risks 35.15u

ICONNO 29.7¢Risks 14.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.85u · ICON −14.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	66.8%	79.6%	67.6%	50.8%	61.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	66.8%	79.6%	74.9%	50.8%	61.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	66.8%	79.6%	74.9%	50.8%	61.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	66.8%	79.6%	74.9%	50.8%	61.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00	74.4%	79.6%	74.9%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	74.4%	79.6%	74.9%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	74.4%	79.6%	74.9%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	74.4%	79.6%	74.9%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00	74.4%	79.6%	74.9%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	74.4%	80.6%	79.7%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	74.4%	80.6%	79.7%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	74.4%	80.6%	79.7%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	70.5%	80.6%	79.7%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	70.5%	80.6%	79.8%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:00	70.5%	80.6%	79.8%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	70.5%	80.6%	79.8%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	70.5%	80.6%	79.8%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00	70.5%	80.6%	77.2%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	70.5%	80.6%	77.2%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	70.5%	80.6%	77.2%	65.7%	67.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	75.2%	80.6%	77.2%	63.2%	60.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	75.2%	80.6%	77.2%	63.2%	60.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	75.2%	80.6%	77.2%	63.2%	60.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	75.2%	80.6%	77.2%	63.2%	60.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:13+00:00	75.2%	80.6%	77.2%	63.2%	60.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	75.2%	79.7%	77.2%	63.2%	60.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	75.2%	79.7%	77.2%	63.2%	60.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	75.2%	79.7%	77.2%	63.2%	60.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	79.4%	79.7%	77.2%	63.2%	60.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	79.4%	79.7%	77.2%	63.2%	60.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	79.4%	79.7%	77.2%	63.2%	60.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	77.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	78.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	61%	75.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗