KBNA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

66%

60%

51%

38%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.8¢Risks 53.85u

ICONNO 46.2¢Risks 46.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.15u · ICON −46.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	38.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	45.6%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	73.2%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	9.3%	46.6%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.9%	75.4%	50.0%	6.3%	—	47.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	39.9%	44.2%	14.0%	—	36.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	44.7%	56.1%	18.9%	—	45.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	46.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	33.7%	42.9%	12.7%	—	33.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	1.8%	49.2%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	18.9%	38.5%	10.4%	—	25.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	15.7%	42.4%	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	25.5%	39.6%	10.9%	—	26.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	23.5%	39.3%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	29.7%	29.7%	9.0%	—	17.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	35.2%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	41.3%	34.8%	7.9%	—	26.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	36.3%	36.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	34.0%	34.0%	8.6%	—	21.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	43.7%	39.5%	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	40.3%	39.2%	13.1%	37.1%	28.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	38.9%	0.0%	—	15.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	70%	78.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	78.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	77.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	76.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	38%	75.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗