KBNA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

53%

41%

36%

34%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.8¢Risks 46.80u

ICONNO 53.2¢Risks 53.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.20u · ICON −53.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	39.5%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	67.6%	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	6.8%	40.0%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	69.5%	43.0%	4.4%	—	40.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	33.0%	37.1%	10.3%	—	29.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	37.2%	48.5%	14.2%	—	38.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	26.8%	35.2%	9.0%	—	26.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	1.0%	41.1%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	13.8%	30.8%	7.1%	—	19.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	11.1%	34.2%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	19.0%	31.4%	7.3%	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	17.2%	31.0%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	22.3%	22.3%	5.8%	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	26.9%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	32.1%	26.3%	4.9%	—	19.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	27.4%	27.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	25.1%	25.1%	5.2%	—	15.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	33.5%	29.8%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	30.1%	29.2%	8.1%	27.3%	19.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	—	28.6%	0.0%	—	9.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	60%	78.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	77.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	76.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	75.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	34%	75.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗