KBNA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

53%

41%

36%

34%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.8¢Risks 46.80u

ICONNO 53.2¢Risks 53.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.20u · ICON −53.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:33+00:00	86.9%	59.3%	67.8%	48.1%	33.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	86.9%	59.3%	67.8%	48.1%	33.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	86.9%	59.3%	67.8%	48.1%	33.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	86.9%	59.3%	67.8%	48.1%	33.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	86.9%	59.3%	67.8%	48.1%	33.6%
2026-10-17T04:41:34+00:00	61.6%	47.5%	68.1%	56.6%	61.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	61.6%	47.5%	68.1%	56.6%	61.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	61.6%	47.5%	68.1%	56.6%	61.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	61.6%	47.5%	68.1%	56.6%	61.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:18+00:00	52.4%	47.5%	68.1%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	52.4%	47.5%	68.1%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:34+00:00	52.4%	47.5%	68.1%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	52.4%	47.5%	68.1%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	52.4%	47.5%	68.1%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	52.4%	65.3%	65.1%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	52.4%	65.3%	65.1%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	52.4%	65.3%	65.1%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	50.0%	65.3%	65.1%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	50.0%	65.3%	65.1%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:35+00:00	50.0%	65.3%	65.1%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	50.0%	65.3%	65.1%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	50.0%	65.3%	58.7%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	50.0%	65.3%	58.7%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	50.0%	65.3%	58.7%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	50.0%	65.3%	58.7%	47.9%	47.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	42.8%	65.3%	58.7%	35.8%	34.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	42.8%	65.3%	58.7%	35.8%	34.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	42.8%	65.3%	58.7%	35.8%	34.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	42.8%	65.3%	58.7%	35.8%	34.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	42.8%	59.5%	52.9%	35.8%	34.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	42.8%	59.5%	52.9%	35.8%	34.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	42.8%	59.5%	52.9%	35.8%	34.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	42.8%	59.5%	52.9%	35.8%	34.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	41.2%	59.5%	52.9%	35.8%	34.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	41.2%	59.5%	52.9%	35.8%	34.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	41.2%	59.5%	52.9%	35.8%	34.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	60%	78.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	77.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	76.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	75.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	34%	75.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗