KBNA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

50%

47%

45%

24%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 37.9¢Risks 37.90u

EPSNO 62.1¢Risks 62.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +62.10u · EPS −62.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	28.0%	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	55.2%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	3.4%	27.7%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	56.3%	29.8%	2.0%	—	27.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	21.0%	24.3%	5.1%	—	18.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	23.9%	33.7%	7.3%	—	24.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	15.4%	21.8%	4.1%	—	15.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.3%	26.3%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	6.6%	17.8%	3.0%	—	10.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	4.9%	20.1%	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	9.4%	17.8%	2.9%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	8.1%	17.2%	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	11.0%	11.0%	2.1%	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	13.7%	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	17.1%	13.1%	1.6%	—	8.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	13.5%	13.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	11.8%	11.8%	1.6%	—	6.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	16.9%	14.4%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	14.3%	13.7%	2.6%	12.5%	8.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	12.9%	0.0%	—	3.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	79.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	50%	79.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	79.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	78.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	77.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗