KBNA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

50%

47%

45%

24%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 37.9¢Risks 37.90u

EPSNO 62.1¢Risks 62.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +62.10u · EPS −62.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	52.1%	35.9%	56.3%	38.4%	71.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	52.1%	35.9%	53.1%	38.4%	71.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00	52.1%	35.9%	53.1%	38.4%	71.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	52.1%	35.9%	53.1%	38.4%	71.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	59.5%	35.9%	53.1%	38.4%	45.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	59.5%	35.9%	53.1%	38.4%	45.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	59.5%	35.9%	53.1%	38.4%	45.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	59.5%	35.9%	53.1%	38.4%	45.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	59.5%	35.9%	53.1%	38.4%	45.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:00	59.5%	18.6%	56.8%	38.4%	45.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	59.5%	18.6%	56.8%	38.4%	45.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	59.5%	18.6%	56.8%	38.4%	45.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:22+00:00	52.2%	18.6%	56.8%	31.9%	45.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	52.2%	18.7%	56.8%	31.9%	46.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:26+00:00	52.2%	20.4%	56.8%	31.9%	46.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	52.2%	20.3%	56.8%	31.9%	46.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	52.2%	20.3%	56.8%	31.9%	46.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	52.2%	20.3%	51.7%	31.9%	46.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	52.2%	20.3%	51.7%	31.9%	46.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	52.2%	20.3%	51.7%	31.9%	46.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	45.6%	20.3%	51.7%	31.9%	50.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:24+00:00	45.6%	20.3%	51.7%	31.9%	50.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	45.6%	20.3%	51.7%	31.9%	50.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	45.6%	20.3%	51.7%	31.9%	50.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	45.6%	20.3%	51.7%	44.6%	50.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	45.6%	24.1%	51.7%	44.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:24+00:00	45.6%	24.1%	51.7%	44.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	45.6%	24.1%	51.7%	44.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	47.1%	24.1%	51.7%	44.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	47.1%	24.1%	51.7%	44.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	47.1%	24.1%	51.7%	44.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	47.1%	24.1%	51.7%	44.6%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	79.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	50%	79.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	79.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	78.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	77.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗