KBNA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

14%

12%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 12.5¢Risks 6.25u

ICONNO 87.5¢Risks 43.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.75u · ICON −43.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:33+00:00	65.9%	17.3%	39.1%	24.9%	20.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	65.9%	17.3%	39.1%	24.9%	20.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	65.9%	17.3%	39.1%	24.9%	20.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	65.9%	17.3%	39.1%	24.9%	20.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	65.9%	17.3%	39.1%	24.9%	20.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:16+00:00	65.9%	17.3%	43.7%	24.9%	20.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	65.9%	15.2%	43.7%	24.9%	20.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:17+00:00	65.9%	15.2%	43.7%	24.9%	20.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	43.0%	15.2%	43.7%	25.1%	20.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	43.0%	15.2%	43.7%	25.1%	20.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:02+00:00	43.0%	15.9%	43.7%	25.1%	20.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	43.0%	15.9%	43.7%	25.1%	20.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	43.0%	15.9%	41.4%	25.1%	20.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	43.0%	15.9%	41.4%	25.1%	20.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	43.0%	15.9%	41.4%	25.1%	20.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	43.0%	15.9%	41.4%	25.1%	20.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	43.0%	15.9%	41.4%	27.1%	63.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	43.0%	15.9%	41.4%	27.1%	63.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	43.0%	15.9%	41.4%	27.1%	63.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	43.0%	15.9%	41.4%	27.1%	63.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	43.0%	18.0%	40.7%	27.1%	63.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	43.0%	18.0%	40.7%	27.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	43.0%	18.0%	40.7%	27.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	38.3%	18.0%	40.7%	27.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	38.3%	18.0%	40.7%	27.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	38.3%	18.0%	40.7%	27.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	38.3%	18.0%	40.7%	27.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T04:24:01+00:00	38.3%	18.0%	40.7%	27.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	38.3%	18.0%	37.6%	27.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:56+00:00	38.3%	18.0%	37.6%	27.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	38.3%	18.0%	37.6%	27.2%	63.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	44.8%	18.0%	37.6%	27.2%	34.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	44.8%	18.0%	37.6%	27.2%	34.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	44.8%	18.0%	37.6%	27.2%	34.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	44.8%	18.0%	37.6%	27.2%	34.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	44.8%	18.0%	37.6%	27.2%	34.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:00	44.8%	6.0%	39.9%	27.2%	34.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	44.8%	6.0%	39.9%	27.2%	34.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	44.8%	6.0%	39.9%	27.2%	34.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:22+00:00	37.6%	6.0%	39.9%	22.0%	34.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	37.7%	6.1%	39.9%	22.0%	35.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:26+00:00	37.7%	7.1%	39.9%	22.0%	35.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	37.7%	7.1%	39.9%	22.0%	35.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	37.7%	7.1%	39.9%	22.0%	35.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	37.7%	7.1%	35.0%	22.0%	35.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	37.7%	7.1%	35.0%	22.0%	35.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	37.7%	7.1%	35.0%	22.0%	35.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:58+00:00	31.5%	7.1%	35.0%	22.0%	39.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:24+00:00	31.5%	7.1%	35.0%	22.0%	39.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	31.5%	7.1%	35.0%	22.0%	39.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	31.5%	7.1%	35.0%	22.0%	39.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	31.5%	7.1%	35.0%	33.0%	39.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	31.5%	9.0%	35.0%	33.0%	39.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:24+00:00	31.5%	9.0%	35.0%	33.0%	39.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	31.5%	9.0%	35.0%	33.0%	39.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	32.9%	9.0%	35.0%	33.0%	39.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	32.9%	9.0%	35.0%	33.0%	39.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	32.9%	9.0%	35.0%	33.0%	39.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	32.9%	9.0%	35.0%	33.0%	39.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:34+00:00	32.9%	9.0%	35.0%	33.0%	39.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	32.9%	9.0%	35.0%	33.0%	39.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	32.9%	9.0%	35.0%	33.0%	39.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	32.9%	9.0%	35.0%	33.0%	39.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:18+00:00	22.8%	9.0%	35.0%	22.8%	23.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	22.8%	9.0%	35.0%	22.8%	23.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:34+00:00	22.8%	9.0%	35.0%	22.8%	23.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	22.8%	9.0%	35.0%	22.8%	23.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	22.8%	9.0%	35.0%	22.8%	23.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	22.8%	15.0%	28.0%	22.8%	23.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	22.8%	15.0%	28.0%	22.8%	23.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	22.8%	15.0%	28.0%	22.8%	23.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	21.0%	15.0%	28.0%	22.8%	23.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	21.0%	15.0%	28.0%	22.9%	23.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:35+00:00	21.0%	15.0%	28.0%	22.9%	23.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	21.0%	15.0%	28.0%	22.9%	23.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	21.0%	15.0%	22.5%	22.9%	23.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	21.0%	15.0%	22.5%	22.9%	23.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	21.0%	15.0%	22.5%	22.9%	23.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	21.0%	15.0%	22.5%	22.9%	23.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	16.1%	15.0%	22.5%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	16.1%	15.0%	22.5%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	16.1%	15.0%	22.5%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	16.1%	15.0%	22.5%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	16.1%	12.8%	18.4%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	16.1%	12.8%	18.4%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	16.1%	12.8%	18.4%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	16.1%	12.8%	18.4%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	15.1%	12.8%	18.4%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	15.1%	12.8%	18.4%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	15.1%	12.8%	18.4%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	15.1%	12.8%	18.4%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	15.1%	12.8%	17.1%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	15.1%	12.8%	17.1%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	15.1%	12.8%	17.1%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	15.1%	12.8%	17.1%	14.6%	14.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00	13.8%	12.8%	17.1%	11.9%	9.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	13.8%	12.8%	17.1%	11.9%	9.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	13.8%	12.8%	17.1%	11.9%	9.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	13.8%	12.8%	17.1%	11.9%	9.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	13.8%	8.7%	12.4%	11.9%	9.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	13.8%	8.7%	12.4%	11.9%	9.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	13.8%	8.7%	12.4%	11.9%	9.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	13.8%	8.7%	12.4%	11.9%	9.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	12.0%	8.7%	12.4%	11.9%	9.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	12.0%	8.7%	12.4%	11.9%	9.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	12.0%	8.4%	12.4%	11.9%	9.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	12.0%	8.4%	12.4%	11.9%	9.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	12.0%	8.4%	10.4%	11.9%	9.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:22+00:00	12.0%	8.4%	10.4%	11.9%	9.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	12.0%	8.4%	10.4%	11.9%	9.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	12.9%	8.4%	10.4%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	12.9%	8.4%	10.4%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	12.9%	8.4%	10.4%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	12.9%	8.4%	10.4%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	12.9%	8.4%	10.4%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	12.9%	5.6%	7.8%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	12.9%	5.6%	7.8%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	12.9%	5.6%	7.8%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	13.8%	5.6%	7.8%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	13.8%	5.6%	7.8%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	13.8%	5.6%	7.8%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	13.8%	5.6%	7.8%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:36+00:00	13.8%	5.6%	7.8%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	13.8%	5.6%	11.4%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	13.8%	5.6%	11.4%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	13.8%	5.6%	11.4%	8.4%	12.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00	16.3%	5.6%	11.4%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	16.3%	5.6%	11.4%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	16.3%	5.6%	11.4%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	16.3%	5.6%	11.4%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00	16.3%	5.6%	11.4%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	16.3%	7.2%	10.6%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	16.3%	7.2%	10.6%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	16.3%	7.2%	10.6%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	13.6%	7.2%	10.6%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	13.5%	7.2%	10.6%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:00	13.5%	7.2%	10.6%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	13.5%	7.2%	10.6%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	13.5%	7.2%	10.6%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00	13.5%	7.2%	9.0%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	13.5%	7.2%	9.0%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	13.5%	7.2%	9.0%	12.2%	9.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	16.8%	7.2%	9.0%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	16.8%	7.2%	9.0%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	16.8%	7.2%	9.0%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	16.8%	7.2%	9.0%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:13+00:00	16.8%	7.2%	9.0%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	16.8%	6.7%	9.0%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	16.8%	6.7%	9.0%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	16.8%	6.7%	9.0%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	20.6%	6.7%	9.0%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	20.6%	6.7%	9.0%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	20.6%	6.7%	9.0%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:00	20.6%	6.7%	9.0%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	20.6%	6.7%	9.0%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	20.6%	6.7%	17.8%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	20.6%	6.7%	17.8%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	20.6%	6.7%	17.8%	10.9%	7.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	20.7%	6.7%	17.8%	10.9%	4.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	20.7%	6.7%	17.8%	10.9%	4.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	20.7%	6.7%	17.8%	10.9%	4.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	20.7%	6.7%	17.8%	10.9%	4.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00	20.7%	10.5%	13.6%	11.6%	4.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	20.7%	10.5%	13.6%	11.6%	4.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	20.7%	10.5%	13.6%	11.6%	4.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	20.7%	10.5%	13.6%	11.6%	4.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00	20.7%	10.4%	13.6%	11.6%	4.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	21%	78.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	78.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	76.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	77.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	4%	75.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗