KBNA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

14%

12%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 12.5¢Risks 6.25u

ICONNO 87.5¢Risks 43.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.75u · ICON −43.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	18.5%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	42.2%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	1.5%	17.6%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	42.3%	18.9%	0.8%	—	17.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	12.0%	14.4%	2.3%	—	10.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	13.8%	21.1%	3.3%	—	14.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	7.8%	11.9%	1.6%	—	7.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.1%	14.8%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	2.7%	9.0%	1.1%	—	4.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	1.9%	10.3%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	3.9%	8.6%	1.0%	—	4.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	3.2%	8.1%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	4.6%	4.6%	0.6%	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	5.9%	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	7.5%	5.4%	0.4%	—	3.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	5.4%	5.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	4.4%	4.4%	0.4%	—	1.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	6.8%	5.5%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	5.3%	5.0%	0.6%	4.5%	2.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	4.5%	0.0%	—	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	21%	78.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	78.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	76.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	77.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	4%	75.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗