KBNA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

64%

51%

46%

46%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.0¢Risks 58.95u

HRESNO 41.0¢Risks 41.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.05u · HRES −41.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	55.9%	59.0%	62.6%	38.7%	39.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	55.9%	59.0%	71.1%	38.7%	39.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	55.9%	59.0%	71.1%	38.7%	39.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	55.9%	59.0%	71.1%	38.7%	39.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	55.9%	59.0%	71.1%	38.7%	39.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00	54.0%	59.0%	71.1%	40.4%	58.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	54.0%	59.0%	71.1%	40.4%	58.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	54.0%	59.0%	71.1%	40.4%	58.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	54.0%	59.0%	71.1%	40.4%	58.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	54.0%	57.7%	59.6%	40.4%	58.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	54.0%	57.7%	59.6%	40.4%	58.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	54.0%	57.7%	59.6%	40.4%	58.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	54.0%	57.7%	59.6%	40.4%	58.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	52.4%	57.7%	59.6%	40.4%	58.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	52.4%	57.7%	59.6%	40.4%	58.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	52.4%	55.0%	59.6%	40.4%	58.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	52.4%	55.0%	59.6%	40.4%	58.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	52.4%	55.0%	59.6%	40.4%	58.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:22+00:00	52.4%	55.0%	59.6%	40.4%	58.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	52.4%	55.0%	59.6%	40.4%	58.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	53.2%	55.0%	59.6%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	53.2%	55.0%	59.6%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	53.2%	55.0%	59.6%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	53.2%	55.0%	59.6%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	53.2%	55.0%	59.6%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	53.2%	47.5%	57.7%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	53.2%	47.5%	57.7%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	53.2%	47.5%	57.7%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	51.6%	47.5%	57.7%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	51.6%	47.5%	57.7%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	51.6%	47.5%	57.7%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	51.6%	47.5%	57.7%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:36+00:00	51.6%	47.5%	57.7%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	51.6%	47.5%	64.2%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	51.6%	47.5%	64.2%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	51.6%	47.5%	64.2%	42.5%	59.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00	56.9%	47.5%	64.2%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	56.9%	47.5%	64.2%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	56.9%	47.5%	64.2%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	56.9%	47.5%	64.2%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00	56.9%	47.5%	64.2%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	56.9%	52.7%	74.0%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	56.9%	52.7%	74.0%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	56.9%	52.7%	74.0%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	49.1%	52.7%	74.0%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	49.1%	52.7%	74.1%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:25+00:00	49.1%	51.3%	74.1%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	49.1%	51.3%	74.1%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	49.1%	51.3%	74.1%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:29+00:00	49.1%	51.3%	64.7%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	49.1%	51.3%	64.7%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	49.1%	51.3%	64.7%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	56.9%	51.3%	64.7%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	56.9%	51.3%	64.7%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	56.9%	51.3%	64.7%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:00+00:00	56.9%	51.3%	64.7%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:14+00:00	56.9%	51.3%	64.7%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	56.9%	50.0%	66.6%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	56.9%	50.0%	66.6%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	56.9%	50.0%	66.6%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	56.9%	50.0%	66.6%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	56.9%	50.0%	66.6%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	56.9%	50.0%	66.6%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:21+00:00	56.9%	50.0%	66.6%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	56.9%	50.0%	66.6%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	56.9%	50.0%	75.8%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	56.9%	50.0%	75.8%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	56.9%	50.0%	75.8%	26.1%	49.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	63.8%	50.0%	75.8%	26.1%	46.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	63.8%	50.0%	75.8%	26.1%	46.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	63.8%	50.0%	75.8%	26.1%	46.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	63.8%	50.0%	75.8%	26.1%	46.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:29+00:00	63.8%	51.3%	72.4%	45.5%	46.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	63.8%	51.3%	72.4%	45.5%	46.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	63.8%	51.3%	72.4%	45.5%	46.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	63.8%	51.3%	72.4%	45.5%	46.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	78.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	78.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	76.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	46%	76.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗