KBNA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

64%

51%

46%

46%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.0¢Risks 58.95u

HRESNO 41.0¢Risks 41.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.05u · HRES −41.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	14.8%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	68.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	9.8%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	9.9%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	6.2%	37.4%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	36.9%	60.4%	14.1%	—	47.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	26.6%	54.4%	22.1%	—	27.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	14.2%	46.2%	9.0%	—	22.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	49.2%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	39.0%	49.2%	10.8%	—	25.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	0.4%	53.3%	—	—	19.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	39.3%	44.2%	6.1%	—	23.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	22.6%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	42.2%	43.9%	6.2%	—	26.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	42.0%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	33.9%	45.4%	6.1%	—	13.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	42.5%	51.9%	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	39.4%	53.9%	6.8%	24.7%	24.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	47.0%	—	—	14.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	78.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	78.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	76.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	46%	76.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗