KBNA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

34%

26%

25%

23%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 30.1¢Risks 15.07u

HRESNO 69.8¢Risks 34.92u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.92u · HRES −34.92u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	6.9%	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	3.9%	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	3.8%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	35.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	2.0%	20.3%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	19.4%	39.6%	5.4%	—	27.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	12.0%	33.0%	9.3%	—	12.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	5.0%	25.1%	2.8%	—	9.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	27.2%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	18.9%	26.8%	3.3%	—	10.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	0.1%	29.7%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	18.4%	21.9%	1.5%	—	8.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	8.2%	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	19.6%	20.8%	1.4%	—	10.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	19.0%	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	13.4%	20.9%	1.2%	—	3.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	18.4%	25.3%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	15.9%	26.3%	1.3%	7.9%	7.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	20.4%	—	—	3.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	78.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	77.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	77.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	74.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	74.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗