KBNA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

49%

45%

32%

22%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 36.9¢Risks 36.90u

EPSNO 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +63.10u · EPS −63.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	43.5%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	0.5%	38.7%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	10.9%	44.4%	0.8%	—	17.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	34.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	26.6%	27.2%	18.4%	—	15.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	27.7%	26.4%	5.6%	—	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	23.0%	20.1%	5.1%	—	15.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	0.4%	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	14.3%	21.9%	3.6%	—	7.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	12.8%	19.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	20.2%	19.0%	4.1%	17.8%	16.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	22.9%	—	—	10.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	52%	79.8°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	79.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	78.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	76.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	76.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗