WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KBNA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
52%
WN2
49%
AIFS
45%
HRES
32%
EPS
22%
Consensus
37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 36.9¢Risks 36.90u
VS
EPSNO 63.1¢Risks 63.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +63.10u · EPS −63.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:18+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:34+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-17T07:44:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.9% · 2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:18+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:34+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 39.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00IFS HRES: 32.5% · 2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00ICON: 14.6% · 2026-10-17T07:44:18+00:00ICON: 14.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00ICON: 14.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:34+00:00ICON: 14.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00ICON: 14.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 40.9% · 2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00ICON: 40.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00ICON: 40.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00ICON: 40.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00ICON: 40.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:0010-17 07:4410-18 07:1510-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:44:18+00:0040.4%44.9%66.3%39.0%14.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:0040.4%44.9%66.3%39.0%14.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:34+00:0040.4%44.9%66.3%39.0%14.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:0040.4%44.9%66.3%39.0%14.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0040.4%44.9%66.3%39.0%14.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:0045.2%26.6%46.9%32.6%40.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:0045.2%26.6%57.0%32.6%40.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:0045.2%26.6%57.0%32.6%40.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:0045.2%26.6%57.0%32.6%40.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:0045.2%26.6%57.0%32.6%40.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:0045.6%26.6%57.0%32.5%51.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:0045.6%26.6%57.0%32.5%51.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:0045.6%26.6%57.0%32.5%51.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:0045.6%26.6%57.0%32.5%51.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:0045.6%21.8%49.1%32.5%51.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:0045.6%21.8%49.1%32.5%51.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:0045.6%21.8%49.1%32.5%51.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:0045.6%21.8%49.1%32.5%51.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:0044.9%22.1%49.1%32.5%51.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%80.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
ICON52%79.8°F7.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 249%79.4°F4.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single45%78.8°F5.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
National Blend33%78.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS HRES32%76.5°F6.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble22%76.7°F3.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗