KBNA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

38%

26%

25%

14%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 29.1¢Risks 29.10u

EPSNO 70.9¢Risks 70.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.90u · EPS −70.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	37.2%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	0.3%	32.4%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	7.9%	37.6%	0.5%	—	13.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	21.0%	21.5%	14.0%	—	11.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	21.6%	20.5%	3.8%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	17.4%	14.9%	3.3%	—	11.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	0.2%	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	10.1%	16.2%	2.2%	—	5.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	8.8%	14.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	14.6%	13.6%	2.5%	12.7%	11.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	16.6%	—	—	7.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	45%	80.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	79.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	77.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	77.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	77.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261024-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 81°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗