KBNA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

54%

54%

40%

35%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.4¢Risks 47.40u

HRESNO 52.6¢Risks 52.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.60u · HRES −52.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	44.0%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	36.0%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	2.8%	33.0%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	33.0%	33.6%	4.2%	—	23.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	29.7%	11.7%	3.8%	—	24.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	18.9%	23.9%	4.1%	—	16.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	30.1%	28.1%	4.9%	33.0%	26.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	34.9%	—	—	22.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	78.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	54%	78.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	78.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	76.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	74.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261025-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗