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KBNA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
60%
ICON
54%
AIFS
54%
EPS
40%
HRES
35%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 47.4¢Risks 47.40u
VS
HRESNO 52.6¢Risks 52.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.60u · HRES −52.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T04:30:36+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T04:30:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.6% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.7% · 2026-10-19T04:30:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T04:30:36+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:36+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:4910-19 14:27
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:36+00:0056.2%41.2%54.7%17.2%58.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:0056.2%41.2%60.0%17.2%58.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:0056.2%41.2%60.0%17.2%58.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:0056.2%41.2%60.0%17.2%58.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:00+00:0055.9%41.2%60.0%34.7%54.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0055.9%41.2%60.0%34.7%54.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:0055.9%41.2%60.0%34.7%54.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0055.9%41.2%60.0%34.7%54.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:06+00:0055.9%41.2%60.0%34.7%54.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:0055.9%39.6%60.1%34.7%54.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:0055.9%39.6%60.1%34.7%54.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:0055.9%39.6%60.1%34.7%54.5%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:0053.7%39.6%60.1%34.7%54.5%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:0053.7%39.6%60.1%34.7%53.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 260%78.7°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON54%78.2°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single54%78.0°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%78.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
National Blend44%77.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble40%76.6°F3.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES35%74.9°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261025-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗