KBNA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

49%

47%

31%

14%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 34.0¢Risks 33.95u

HRESNO 66.0¢Risks 66.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.05u · HRES −66.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	38.0%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	30.1%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	1.8%	27.1%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	26.9%	27.5%	2.9%	—	18.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	23.7%	8.4%	2.5%	—	18.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	14.2%	18.4%	2.7%	—	12.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	23.6%	21.8%	3.1%	26.1%	20.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	27.7%	—	—	16.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	54%	79.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	78.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	78.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	76.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	71.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗