KBNA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

49%

47%

31%

14%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 34.0¢Risks 33.95u

HRESNO 66.0¢Risks 66.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.05u · HRES −66.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	47.9%	38.8%	46.9%	31.5%	22.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	47.9%	38.8%	46.9%	31.5%	22.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	47.9%	38.8%	46.9%	31.5%	22.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	47.9%	38.8%	46.9%	31.5%	22.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	54.8%	38.8%	46.9%	31.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:42+00:00	54.8%	38.8%	46.9%	31.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	54.8%	35.9%	46.9%	31.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:56+00:00	54.8%	35.9%	46.9%	31.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	54.8%	35.9%	43.8%	31.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:22+00:00	54.8%	35.9%	43.8%	31.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	54.8%	35.9%	43.8%	31.5%	22.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	45.2%	35.9%	43.8%	13.5%	54.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	45.2%	35.9%	43.8%	13.5%	54.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	45.2%	35.9%	43.8%	13.5%	54.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	45.2%	35.9%	43.8%	13.5%	54.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	45.2%	35.9%	43.8%	13.5%	54.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	45.2%	30.9%	46.9%	13.5%	54.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	45.2%	30.9%	46.9%	13.5%	54.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	45.2%	30.9%	46.9%	13.5%	54.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	46.9%	13.5%	54.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	46.9%	13.5%	54.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	46.9%	13.5%	54.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	46.9%	13.5%	54.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	54%	79.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	78.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	78.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	76.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	71.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗