KBNA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

41%

32%

26%

19%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 31.4¢Risks 31.45u

ICONNO 68.5¢Risks 68.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +68.55u · ICON −68.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	32.4%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	24.6%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	1.2%	21.8%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	21.4%	21.9%	1.9%	—	13.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	18.4%	5.9%	1.6%	—	14.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	10.3%	13.8%	1.7%	—	9.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	17.9%	16.4%	2.0%	20.1%	15.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	21.2%	—	—	12.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	78.6°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	78.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	77.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	75.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	70.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261025-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗